Thursday, August 30, 2012

Revenue exceeds estimates

Today Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot announced that revenues for state fiscal year 2012 - which ended June 30 - exceeded the official estimates by $230 million.


This is moderately good news for several reasons:
  1. It demonstrates that the economic recovery - weak as it is - is beginning to improve household and corporate income.
  2. It reduces the state's revenue shortfall for the upcoming year. 
The Comptroller issued a statement that emphasizes that the economy remains precarious and the recovery is adding jobs and revenue much more slowly than we would like. He is right. Still, the good revenue news suggests a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.

There are still two big risks to the economy (and therefore to Maryland's budget). Congress might enact abrupt federal budget cuts, which could send the national economy into a new recession. Or the European economy could deteriorate to the extent that the US economy suffers.

On the plus side, Maryland's state budget is balanced through June 2013. $672 million remains in the state's "Rainy Day" reserve fund. The three bond rating agencies have again upheld Maryland's exceptional Triple-A credit rating.

The budget will remain difficult, but as a result of the state's balanced approach to managing the budget and some level of economic recovery, there is hope for the future.

We will publish MBTPI's complete analysis of the fiscal year close-out shortly.

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Metro unemployment down in MD

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released July employment data today for metropolitan areas. All four metros in Maryland have lower unemployment than a year ago.

Maryland's (not seasonally adjusted) unemployment rate was 7.1 percent in July, down from 7.4 percent in the same month in 2011. Baltimore-Towson's rate was 7.7 percent, down slightly from 7.9 percent. The decline in Cumberland was also slight, from 8.2 to 8 percent unemployment. By comparison, the improvement in Salisbury and Hagerstown-Martinsburg was more significant. Salisbury moved from 9.3 percent unemployment to 8.6 percent; while Hagerstown-Martinsburg fell almost a full percentage point, from 8.9 percent to 8 percent unemployment.

These are encouraging developments, but it is important to remember that there are still roughly 223,000 unemployed Marylanders looking for work.

The other bit of data released by BLS today was the number of jobs in each metro area. Again, all four Maryland metros improved at least slightly. While the number of jobs in Baltimore-Towson only grew by one tenth of one percent over the past year, Cumberland grew 1.7 percent. Hagerstown-Martinsburg added 0.6 percent more jobs, and Salisbury added 0.8 percent more. Statewide, Maryland added 0.9 percent more jobs.

Monday, August 27, 2012

The Week Ahead

Last week we signed onto a letter from 23 organizations calling for greater funding for the Maryland Meals for Achievement (MMFA) program. Schools participating in MMFA provide breakfast in the classroom each morning to every student, regardless of family income. The MMFA program improves academic performance, reduces behavior problems, and increases students attention spans.

Sometime this week we expect the Comptroller to announce the results of the FY 2012 closeout. Fiscal year 2012 ended June 30th. The Comptroller also maintains an archive of previous closeout reports.

Monday, August 27th
Tuesday, August 28th
Wednesday, August 29th
  • Capital Budget Subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee meets for a briefing on the new youth detention center report. Public testimony is not usually accepted for briefings. However, written public testimony will be accepted for this briefing. Submit 40 copies no later than August 28, 2012 by 3pm. The briefing starts at 10am in room 120 of the House Office Building, Annapolis.
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July employment figures for metropolitan areas.
Friday, August 31st

Friday, August 24, 2012

Letter to the State Superintendent - Kids learn better if they are not hungry

The Maryland Budget and Tax Policy Institute is one of 24 organizations to sign this letter asking the state Department of Education to embark on a multi-year commitment to provide free breakfast funding for all the schools that qualify.  Also see our "Monday Message" on school breakfast from the 2012 legislative session. The $1.8 million we are requesting for the upcoming budget amounts to 5/1000 of one percent of the state budget.


Monday, August 20, 2012

The Week Ahead

There are only a couple of events this week, but a number of national economic data releases.

Tuesday, August 21nd
Wednesday, August 22nd
  • Board of Public Works meets. 10am in the Governor's Reception Room on the second floor of the state house in Annapolis.
Thursday, August 23th
  • Maryland Nonprofits offers Streamlining Your Marketing Through Content Strategy. This is a training program in the Silver Spring office. For more information and to register, check out their events page
  • BLS releases monthly data about mass layoffs.
  • Census Bureau releases national and regional data about new home sales. The data - the number of new single-family houses sold and for sale, median and average prices, the number of houses sold and for sale by stage of construction, and other statistics - are from the Survey of Construction (SOC), which is partially funded by the Department of Housing and Urban Development
Friday, August 24th
  • BLS releases data about worker displacement. 
  • Census also releases the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders. The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders survey provides monthly statistical data on economic conditions in the domestic manufacturing sector. The survey measures current industrial activity and provides an indication of future business trends.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Welcome to our international fellow!

MBTPI welcomes Baigalmaa Bayandorj to the staff for the next four months. Ms. Bayandorj is an international fellow with the Community Solutions program, a professional development program run by the U.S. State Department for global community leaders working in the fields of transparency and accountability, tolerance and conflict resolution, environmental issues, and women’s issues. Baigal hails from the city of Ulan Bator, the capital and principal city of Mongolia. She writes:

"I am very excited to join Maryland Nonprofits and the Maryland Budget and Tax Policy Institute. I graduated from The National Mongolian University in 2006. I started to work in non-governmental organizations (NGO) since 2004 when I joined Mongolian Women’s Fund (MONES) as a fundraising and marketing coordinator. During 2009-2010, I worked as a CEO for social marketing in NGO. I started to work on ad hoc basis in Mercy Corps since 2007 and in 2011 I was upgraded to a project officer responsible for the Social Safety Nets Project. At the moment, I work as a consultant on part time basis for Fostering an Inclusive Environment for Local Disabled Project II.

I am an activist, fundraising manager, marketing coordinator, and trainer on social community. My work principle is to ensure accountability and transparency among project leadership, staff and the community. During my work experience, I have learned to work effectively and efficiently, acquired skills of resource mobilization and fundraising. During 2006-2008, I was involved in various training programs organized by the Women’s Funding Network, the “Mama Cash” Women’s Fund and Grantmaking Without Program in US.

Upon my return to Mongolia I intend to work as a volunteer and consultant to the Active Partnership and Public Engagement for Accountable Localities (APPEAL) project. I may also work on an “engagement and advocacy” project about information freedom, transparency law, and budget and tax policy working with employees of large public, NGO, and private organizations."

* * *

MBTPI is excited to have Baigal here. We look forward to learning more about public policy and the NGO sector in Mongolia, and sharing our experiences here in Maryland.

Monday, August 13, 2012

The Week Ahead

The special session on gambling continues this week. Last Friday the Senate approved Governor O'Malley's bill to allow table games and add a sixth casino in Prince George's County. The House Ways and Means Committee also held a hearing, and may vote on the bill today. The bill to determine dog owner liability without regard to breed (a response to the recent court ruling on pit bulls) is also moving forward.

Last week we blogged about threatened cuts to SNAP, the Thornton gap, a summary of the gambling bill now under consideration, and the sales tax holiday.  

Monday, August 13th
Tuesday, August 14th
  • Advisory Council for Alternative Response holds its monthly meeting. The Council advises the Department of Human Resources as it develops an alternative response system for certain reports of suspected child abuse or neglect. 1-3pm in room 1044 of the Department of Human Resources, 311 West Saratoga Street, Baltimore.
  • Community Services Reimbursement Rate Commission meets. 6-8pm in the conference room of the Maryland Association of Community Services, 8835 Columbia 100 Parkway Unit P, Columbia.
  • According to the Baltimore Sun, the Senate hopes to meet at 7pm to vote on changes made in the House version of the gambling bill. If the House actually moves that fast, and the Senate passes the House version, the second special session could close this evening. However, the legislature could take until August 20th, the deadline for putting referenda on the November ballot. Any gambling bill passed after the 20th would have to wait until the 2014 election.
Wednesday, August 15th
Thursday, August 16th

Friday, August 10, 2012

Tax Free Holiday Not a Good Deal


Starting this Sunday, August 12th, through the following Saturday, August 18th, Marylanders will be able to purchase certain clothing items costing less than $100 without paying the state's 6% sales tax (you can find more information about the holiday here). However, it's not as good a deal as it sounds.

The sales tax holiday was established in 2007 as a way to help families with back-to-school expenses and to promote Maryland retailers. At the time, legislators thought that the state was on track for budget surpluses and could afford the lost revenue. The recession derailed that plan, and the state is still struggling to recover. Now, the sales tax holiday is a loss the state can ill afford.

Estimates are that the sales tax holiday costs the state treasury about $10 million in lost revenues. That's enough money to provide 1,000 families with emergency housing assistance, or state college scholarships for 4,000 students. And it comes as the state begins to grapple with how to fix the remaining $400-500 million structural deficit in the FY 2014 budget.

Since 1997, at least 20 states and the District of Columbia have held tax holidays. They mostly involve clothes, computers, school supplies, and appliances. Florida extended tax holidays to hurricane-preparedness items. Yet many experts don't think stores benefit much from sales tax holidays. Research has found that in many cases removing sales taxes for a few days affects the timing of purchases rather than the volume. Business might be up during a sales tax holiday, but it goes down at other times as people shift their purchases to the tax-free days. One Florida study even showed that retailers raised prices (or lowered their normal discounts) during the tax holiday so they took 20 cents out of every dollar customers saved on taxes.   

Tax holidays can be confusing too. In Maryland the purchase of clothing under $100 will be tax free; but if you exchange the item after the tax holiday you have to pay tax on the new item (unless you exchange it). If you get a rain check and redeem it after the tax-free week, you'll have to pay tax. The store can’t break up something that’s normally a set (like selling the parts of a suit separately) to get the prices of the individual components under $100 and sell them tax-free. And the tax holiday doesn't apply to accessories, like belts, scarves and neckties.

More importantly, the sales tax holiday provides little relief to low-income Marylanders who are less able to shift the timing of their purchases to coincide with the sales tax holiday.

A better way to help families struggling to stay afloat would be to reform the tax system in Maryland to ensure the long-term revenue needed for services like education, health care, and job training that help people make their own way, take risks, and be productive. Asking out-of-state web-based retailers  to play by the same rules as those on Maryland's main streets would be an excellent start.

Is the sales tax holiday worth it? It provides a little excitement and free promotion for retailers. It gives government officials something to claim credit for. It may help families a little bit with back-to-school shopping, but few shoppers would get excited about a “giant 6%-off sale,” which would amount to the same thing. It costs us, as citizens, real money from our state treasury during a time when Maryland is cutting public services and can ill afford to make the hole we are trying to dig out of even deeper.

The bottom line is the tax holiday is not a good use of our limited resources. Interestingly, both the progressive Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy and the conservative Tax Foundation agree with me.  While the tax holiday might help consumers and businesses a little bit, a strong economy and safety net will help them more. That takes public investment and those investments take money.  There are more direct, less costly ways to help retailers and working families. We can’t afford to be spending money on gimmicks like tax holidays when we still have high unemployment and foreclosure rates, and losses of revenue needed for education and healthcare.

Gambling bill summarized

The Senate Budget and Taxation Committee has approved the administration's gambling expansion bill with minor amendments. It will likely receive a favorable vote in the full Senate and a hearing in the House Ways and Means Committee today, with House action occurring next week.

Senator Richard Madaleno of Montgomery County - one of the legislature's leading fiscal experts -  has prepared a clear and succinct summary of the administration's bill to expand gambling in the special session. The good Senator has agreed to let us share it with you: 

* * *
"Background
During the 2012 Legislative Session, the General Assembly reviewed, and the Senate passed, two bills providing for the expansion of legal gambling in Maryland. As a result of a constitutional amendment passed by voters in 2008, state law currently allows five slots facilities located in the following jurisdictions: Allegany County, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore City, Cecil County and Worcester County. Three of these sites are already open and producing revenue for the state, while the other two sites – Baltimore City and Allegany County – are still in the conceptual phase. The two bills introduced during the 2012 Legislative Session would have allowed the current sites to additionally offer a range of table games, as well as authorized a sixth site to be located in Prince George’s County near the Woodrow Wilson Bridge, with National Harbor and Rosecroft Raceway both potential sites.

During the regular session, the legislature and the Governor could not come to an agreement on a gaming expansion package, resulting in neither of the two bills introduced passing into law. However, there was consensus regarding the need for additional work to properly assess gaming expansion proposals, which could provide additional revenue for state funded public education. Under the provisions of the 2008 constitutional amendment, any expansion beyond the five authorized gambling sites is automatically subject to a statewide voter referendum during the next regularly scheduled general election. Since general elections in Maryland only occur every two years, there was a predictable push to finalize a proposal before the August 20 deadline to place referendum issues on the 2012 General Election ballot.

As such, on May 21, Governor O’Malley announced the formation of a special “gaming” workgroup of eleven members to review the various expansion measures in preparation for a second Special Session in July/August. Together with two other Senators, [Senator Madaleno] was appointed to the “Workgroup to Consider Gaming Expansion”, which began its work on June 1 and issued its final recommendations on June 20. Despite broad consensus amongst workgroup members on a majority of recommendations, a unanimous agreement could not be reached on the conditions related to the addition of a sixth gaming site in Prince George’s County.

However, recognizing a significant opportunity to improve the effectiveness of the state’s gaming program and expand investment in public education, over the past several weeks the Governor has utilized the workgroup recommendations as a framework for continued discussions with members of the General Assembly and relevant stakeholders. With the recent announcement convening a Special Session, the Governor appears confident that a newly crafted gaming bill – based upon stakeholder and workgroup input - will pass the legislature. Below [is a summary of] the main provisions of the bill, a draft copy of which was released this week.

Bill Summary
As proposed, the Governor’s gaming legislation adopts a majority of the recommendations supported by the “Workgroup to Consider Gaming Expansion”, with several key additions:

• Establishes that 100% of all state proceeds from gaming revenue will be invested directly in public education, deposited in the Maryland Education Trust Fund. It is estimated that the Education Trust Fund will receive approximately $200 million per year once all six sites are functioning in 2016.

• Authorizes a sixth casino in Maryland, to be located in Prince George’s County, with the caveat that a majority of both Prince George’s County voters and statewide voters must approve the issue at referendum. If Prince George’s County voters reject the ballot question in November, a sixth casino site is not authorized. Should voters in Prince George’s County approve the issue at referendum, a competitive bidding process for the operating license will be administered by the State. Should Prince George’s County voters reject the ballot initiative but voters statewide approve, all legislative provisions unattached to the sixth site will go into effect.

• Authorizes table games (i.e. blackjack, poker, etc.) at all state gambling sites at a tax rate of 20%. Video Lottery Terminal (VLT) or “slots” will continue to be taxed at the current rate of 67%. However, if a sixth site is approved by voters, negatively impacted facilities in Baltimore City and Anne Arundel County may retain an additional 5% of VLT proceeds for advertising and capital improvement costs.

• Transitions “slots” procurement responsibilities from the State to casino operators. Currently the State is responsible for purchasing and leasing the “slots” machines at casino sites at a cost of 13% of total revenues. By transferring this responsibility, the State will generate significant savings for the Education Trust Fund. As compensation for the transfer, casino operators will receive an additional 6% of proceeds if they own or lease the VLTs and associated equipment/software.

• Establishes a Gaming Commission, under a reconstituted State Lottery Agency, to review and protect the State’s interests. The seven member commission would be appointed by the Governor with the advice and consent of the Senate and led by an “expert” Executive Director. Other stipulations require that the commission be bi-partisan, reflect the demographic diversity of the state, and consult with a third party consultant to provide continual analysis of the Maryland gaming industry. Additionally, with legislative oversight, the newly formed Gaming Control Commission may adjust the Baltimore City and Anne Arundel casino’s VLT revenue percentages by no more than 5%.

• Bans political donations from gambling companies.

• Allows the state’s casino’s to operate 24 hours a day, seven days a week. However, facilities would still have to abide by local liquor laws, so that while gaming operations could continue they would still have to close their bars.

• Incorporates a “hold harmless” provision, specifying that local jurisdictions currently authorized to host casino sites will not see a reduction in local impact revenues due to the addition of a sixth site. Under current law, local jurisdictions hosting one of the five authorized gaming facilities receive 5.5% of “slots” proceeds to compensate for additional public safety and transportation costs."
 * * *

Thursday, August 9, 2012

Slot Machines, Schools, and The $718 million Thornton Gap


In the special legislative session that opened today, Governor Martin O’Malley and Maryland’s legislative leaders are promoting expanded gambling as a way to help Maryland’s schools. The Governor asserts that expanded gambling will provide $100 million for Maryland’s public schools.

So it’s important to look at how gambling revenue affects school funding. Even though 48.5 percent of casino proceeds go to an “Education Trust Fund,” it’s not quite right to say that this has increased funding for education. In fact, the typical public school classroom now gets $21,000 less in state funds than the amount intended by the landmark 2002 "Thornton Formula."
 

 

 

 

Here is what has Happened

The “Thornton Formula,” enacted in 2002 increased and reformed Maryland system of providing state funding for local schools. It was supposed to provide adequate funding for the “thorough and efficient” system of public education required by Maryland’s constitution, and to eliminate gaps in student achievement between richer and poorer school systems.

The program operated as intended from 2003 to 2008, increasing state aid to schools by nearly 80%.
After that time, the formula was supposed to adjust annually to keep pace with enrollment and education costs.

In 2008, Maryland voters approved slot machine gambling with the promise that the bulk of the funds would go to support schools. The legislature established the “Education Trust Fund” to receive these funds.
At the same time, the national recession hit, throwing Maryland and almost every other state into a severe revenue shortfall.

The Thornton Gap 

Part of Maryland’s budget balancing strategy was to freeze or limit the inflation factor in the per-pupil amount. The per-pupil amount, which drives the total funding, did not increase in fiscal years 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. The legislature allowed a 1 percent increase in the current fiscal year 2013. The increases are limited to 1 percent through fiscal year 2015. So, funding levels have adjusted for increases in student population, but not for cost increases.

What about the money from the slot machines? It did go to public schools, as advertised. But an equivalent amount of tax money went away to help balance the state budget.  The “Education Trust Fund” turns out to be a shell game.

If the formula had been adjusted for actual inflation and enrollment, the state’s school aid would be $718 million more than it is now. That comes to a difference of more than $21,000 for a typical classroom of 25 students. The graph above shows the “Thornton Gaps” for Maryland’s largest school systems.

Without this money, schools have increased class sizes; eliminated programs in foreign languages, physical education, and art; cut supplies and equipment in classrooms, libraries and labs; and reduced after-school and summer program opportunities. These cuts have hit all of Maryland’s schools systems, and they have fallen hardest on those that serve the most disadvantaged kids.

"For Maryland, for our Future"

That was the slogan Governor O'Malley and other gambling proponents used to support the 2008 slot machine referendum. At MBTPI, we understand that the state has to balance its budget, and we appreciate that Maryland’s Governor and legislature have protected education funding from the deepest and most severe cuts. Places like Virginia, Ohio, Arizona and Hawaii have cut their local schools much more severely.

But now there is a need to repair the damage. We need to make good on the promises for Maryland's future - and especially to Maryland's students. If the legislature and Maryland’s voters approve gambling expansion now, they must also make a commitment to restore the formula amounts to the levels required by the original Thornton formula over a reasonable period of time. If we leave the Thornton Gap open we break our promise to today’s kids and we disinvest in Maryland’s future.

Monday, August 6, 2012

Meanwhile in Washington ... Food Assistance threatened for thousands

Guest blogger: Lisa Klingenmeier, Maryland Hunger Solutions

The Farm Bill proposal passed on July 12 by the House Agriculture Committee slashes funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, called Food Supplement Program in Maryland) by $16 billion over ten years. It does this mainly by restricting states’ ability to implement broad-based Categorical Eligibility (Cat EL) and “heat and eat” – two ways to coordinate SNAP with other low-income programs. By cutting Cat El, thousands of Marylanders would lose their SNAP benefits.

To show the widespread support for SNAP, Maryland Hunger Solutions is coordinating daily drop offs of Paper Apples bearing the message, "SNAP Works" to the district offices of Representatives Van Hollen and Hoyer during the week of August 13-17.

About the Paper Apple Campaign

Maryland Hunger Solutions began its Paper Apple Campaign in 2011 as a way to gather voices in support of SNAP and other programs that are central to creating a healthy, hunger-free Maryland. The campaign has collected hundreds of Paper Apples from people struggling with food insecurity, service providers, the Governor and other leaders across the state.

How To Participate

Fill out the apples! You can  print out a blank the apple above. Cut it out and add a personal message explaining why you support SNAP and how you’ve seen SNAP working in your community.
  • You can mail the completed apples to Maryland Hunger Solutions at 400 E. Pratt Street, Suite 606, Baltimore, MD 21202.
  • Take pictures of yourself and others holding paper apples with the message "SNAP Works.”On Twitter, you can tweet @MarylandHunger and use the hashtag #SNAPworks. Sample messages: 
  • Hey @ChrisVanHollen @WhipHoyer I agree with @MarylandHunger: #SNAPworks support SNAP!
  • Post your picture on your Facebook wall and tag Maryland Hunger Solutions. Sample message: Join me and Maryland Hunger Solutions in letting Reps Van Hollen and Hoyer know that SNAP Works.
Not social media savvy? Email pictures to Laura Flamm and she will post them during the week of August 13-17 on Maryland Hunger Solutions’ social media outlets.

The Week Ahead

Legislators will return to Annapolis Thursday in a second special session. On the table will be adding a sixth gambling location in Prince George's County, allowing table games and internet gambling, and possibly liability issues for pet owners. The outcome of this special session is less predictable than the first, but there are some indications that whatever happens will take about a week.

One news item of note that we neglected to highlight when it happened last week was the state bond sale. On Wednesday the state sold more than $700 million in general obligation bonds at very favorable rates. The low interest rates were possible because of the actions taken by the governor and legislature to protect Maryland's AAA bond rating by drawing down the structural deficit over the last several years and responsibly balancing the budget.
 
Tuesday, August 7th
  • Maryland Nonprofits offers Harnessing the Power of LinkedIn for Outreach, Networking, and Prospecting. This is a Maryland Nonprofits training; go to their website for more information or to register.
Wednesday, August 8th
  • Maryland Nonprofits offers an introductory webinar about the Standards for Excellence program. This is a Maryland Nonprofits training; go to their website for more information or to register.
  • Maryland Nonprofits offers Board Orientations and Handbooks. This is a Maryland Nonprofits training; go to their website for more information or to register.
Thursday, August 9th
Friday, August 10th

Friday, August 3, 2012

Number of jobs filled goes up, but so does the unemployment rate

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released national employment figures for July today. The economy added 163,000 non-farm jobs last month, but the unemployment rate ticked up one tenth of a percentage point, to 8.3 percent. The rate increase was due to a small decline in the size of the labor force and an even smaller increase in the number of unemployed persons (remember that jobs and people are two different measures of the labor market; people may hold more than one job, but each job may only be held by one person).


Hispanics were the only major group to see a decline in their unemployment rate, from 11 down to 10.3 percent. The number of jobs rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, and manufacturing.

Revised May and June figures were also released. Maryland's employment data for July will be released August 17th.