The Week Ahead (Midweek Edition)

Welcome to the midweek edition of The Week Ahead, courtesy Hurricane Sandy. Hopefully our readers were as fortunate as we were in this storm, but our thoughts go out to those who still lack power, sustained damage to their homes or business, or lost loved ones. At times like these we think particularly of the homeless and others in our community who lack adequate shelter everyday, let alone during a major storm or hurricane. We also can't help but notice, as the NY Times did in a pre-storm editorial, the value of government coordination in disaster relief and preparedness. 

Last week Neil Bergsman was quoted in a widely reprinted Capital News Service story about the potential effect of sequestration on Maryland, a MontgomeryVillagePatch.com story about gambling ad claims, and Dan Rodricks' column refuting defenders of the 1 percent.

Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released metropolitan area employment figures. All four metro areas in Maryland, plus the DC metro, had declining unemployment rates compared to one year ago.

Wednesday, October 31st

• Joint Committee on Fair Practices and State Personnel Oversight meets for an update on the state Equal Opportunity Program and personnel matters. 10am in room 3 East, Senate Office Building, Annapolis.
• Joint Committee on Pensions meets to discuss requested legislation and the optional retirement program. 2pm in room 120, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Board of Public Works meets. 10am in the Governor's Reception Room on the second floor, State House, Annapolis.

Friday, November 2nd

• Joint Committee on Health Benefit Exchange Financing meets. Noon to 2pm at the Maryland Health Care Commission, main conference room, 4160 Patterson Avenue, Baltimore. 
• BLS releases national employment figures for October. The U.S. unemployment rate declined the last two months, to 7.8 percent in September.

The Week Ahead

Last week we blogged about the spending affordability briefing and Maryland's structural deficit for fiscal year 2014, and about the lower unemployment rate for the state in September. Neil Bergsman was quoted in an op-ed on Maryland's debt by Gazette.net

October 22nd, 2012

• Alcoholic Beverages Article Review Committee meets to continue its review of material dealing with the conditions for issuing licenses. 5pm in the Judiciary Training Room 3, 2009F Commerce Park Drive, Annapolis.

October 23rd, 2012

• Education and Economic Development Subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee is on a site visit. 10am at The Universities at Shady Grove, 9630 Gudelsky Drive, Rockville. 
• Maryland Nonprofits offers Strategic Planning Made Simple. This is a half-day training; for more information or to register see the events page.

October 24th, 2012

• Senate Education, Health, and Environmental Affairs Committee is on site visits to several public schools. 9am to 4:30pm, Baltimore City Public Schools, Professional Development Center, 2500 E. Northern Parkway, Baltimore. 
• Maryland Nonprofits offers Starting a Nonprofit: Planning and Preparation. This is a lunchtime webinar; for more information or to register see the events page. 

October 25th, 2012

• Task Force to Study Court Decision Regarding Pit Bulls holds a work session. 1pm in 2 East, Senate Office Building, Annapolis.
• Maryland Medicaid Advisory Committee meets. 1-3pm in the lobby level conference room L-3, 201 W. Preston Street, Baltimore.

October 26th, 2012

• Joint Committee on the Chesapeake and Atlantic Coastal Bays Critical Area is on a site visit to Annapolis area living shoreline sites. More information about the Critical Area Commission for the Chesapeake and Atlantic Coastal Bays is available here. 9:30am to 1pm.

MD unemployment down to 6.9 percent

BLS released state-level employment figures for September this morning. Maryland's unemployment rate fell for the first time in six months, to 6.9 percent.

More than 11,000 Marylanders joined the ranks of the employed, as state employers added 9,800 jobs. Every industry sector added jobs or was flat, except for financial services which lost 300. The largest gains were in professional and business services (4,100 new jobs) and trade, transportation, and utilities (2,000 new jobs).

Positive employment trends such as those shown here are good news for Marylanders and the state's budget. Increased employment means more income tax and more purchases resulting in sales tax, the two main components of state revenue. It also suggests that demand for social services may decline in the future, if the jobs added pay a living wage. If this trend continues, Maryland will be better positioned to pay for the investments in schools, roads, public safety, parks, and healthcare that make this state great.

Of course, as we highlighted earlier today, if Congress fails to act to avert sequestration or the fiscal cliff Maryland could be back at square one.

MD faces $600 million FY 2014 "structural" deficit, more if feds push US off "fiscal cliff"

As the Governor develops the budget for fiscal year 2014, Maryland is closer to a balanced budget picture at this point in the process than in any of in the last five years. Threats to the economy from the federal budget impasse could make things much worse, though.

The Department of Legislative Services (DLS) briefed the Spending Affordability Committee on Wednesday, forecasting Maryland's economy and issues facing the state in fiscal year (FY) 2014 (DLS's briefing handout).

MBTPI graph from Dep't of Legislative Services data

The highlights include:

Maryland's Economic Outlook

• Labor Market - 12 month payroll employment growth accelerated from June 2011 through February or March of this year. Data from the Current Employment Survey suggests employment grew much slower in the months following, but the trend was still positive. Look for our blog later today about the latest employment figures released this morning (hint: they're good news).
• Housing Market - Existing home sales have been up for the last five months, compared to 12 months prior. Prices for existing homes have been rising since February. Part of the explanation for improvement in the housing market may be that the inventory of homes on the market is down 25 percent compared to 2011.
• Consumer Market - So far this year new vehicle sales are up 10.8 percent while used car sales are essentially flat, compared to 2011. Vehicle prices are also up. Personal income growth has flattened over the first two quarters of 2012, to just under 4 percent.
• Economic Forecast - The Board of Revenue Estimates forecasts that from the current FY 2013 to FY 2015 rising employment (between 0.9 and 1.8 percent growth), personal income (between 3.3 and 6.1 percent growth), and wage and salary income (between 3.4 and 4.2 percent) will reflect the improving state economy.

The improving economy means that DLS projects state revenue growth in FY 2014 of 2.7 percent, to $15.3 billion.

DLS also presented a baseline current services budget (in other words, what the budget would look like if current programs were continued, including expected changes in caseloads, etc.).

One important change this year is that DLS has decided to report information about expenditures from the general funds and some of the state's special funds together. This is an important change, because legislators have increasingly relied on the creation of special funds to help meet revenue shortfalls, masking increases in general funds expenditures. As the inset table shows, including special funds increases the FY 2013 budget by $1.7 billion and the baseline FY 2014 budget by $1.3 billion. This also impacts how we interpret the budget's growth rate. General funds are projected to grow 8.2 percent in FY 2014. However, including the special funds with the general funds drops the annual growth rate of expenditures significantly, to just 4.8 percent.

All of this means that Maryland is likely to face a structural deficit in the FY 2014 budget of more than $600 million. While smaller than in previous years, this is still significant and will require careful work by the executive and legislative branches.

Finally, none of these numbers may mean much if the United States Congress fails to solve their own fiscal problems, specifically sequestration (mandatory across-the-board cuts to discretionary federal spending) and the expiration of various tax cuts and other revenue measures. If Congress fails to act, Maryland could lose $117.6 million in direct federal aid during federal fiscal 2013. Furthermore, Maryland stands to lose up to 60,000 jobs in calendar year 2014 and a further $635 million in lost revenue due to smaller state income and sales tax collections.

The Week Ahead

MBTPI's analysis of Question 7 (the gambling referendum) continues to attract attention, mostly recently in the Afro-American last Monday. Later in the week Neil Bergsman blogged about his experiences with the Food Stamp Challenge (you can also read his final thoughts about the challenge from earlier this morning). Feeding yourself for $30 a week isn't easy; yet another reason why protecting and expanding social services is so important.

Neil Bergsman is co-presenting a full-day training program on the Maryland legislative and budget process with Henry Bogdan of Maryland Nonprofits. Please see the entry for Thursday for more information and how to register. 

Tuesday, October 16th

• Joint Audit Committee holds hearings on data security and other audit issues.  1pm in room 120, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Task Force to Study the Laws and Policies Relating to Representation of Indigent Criminal Defendants by the Office of the Public Defender receives presentations on the DeWolfe vs. Richmond decision, the District Court Commissioner System, pretrial release, and the bail review system. 1pm in room 100, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Task Force on the Establishment of a Statewide Spay/Neuter Fund meets to discuss potential funding mechanisms and program structures. 1pm in room 250, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Maryland Food Access and Nutrition Network presents the 2nd Annual Fighting Hunger in Maryland Conference: A Call to Action (registration required). The conference will bring together agency leaders, nonprofits, schools and other entities invested in reducing hunger and poverty in Maryland. Topics include: SNAP, child nutrition and WIC policy; changing paradigms in emergency food distribution; local food, local hunger; food security and nutrition strategies for seniors; and community nutrition outreach strategies. 8am to 4pm, University of Maryland, SMC Campus Center, 621 West Lombard Street, Baltimore.
• Witnesses to Hunger Exhibit opening reception follows the Fighting Hunger in Maryland conference.

Wednesday, October 17th

• Joint Committee on Children, Youth, and Families discusses nutrition issues including childhood obesity, eating disorders, and breast milk banks for premature babies. 10am in room 130, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Joint Committee on Federal Relations meets to discuss federal health care reform and its impact on Maryland. 10am in the William H Amoss Hearing Room (4th Floor), Senate Office Building, Annapolis.
• Joint Committee on Legislative Data Systems meets. 10am in room 218, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Board of Public Works meets. 10am in the Governor's Reception Room (2nd floor), State House, Annapolis. 
• House Appropriations Committee and House Environmental Matters Committee are jointly briefed on the allocation of mortgage settlement funds. The national Office of Mortgage Settlement Oversight recently published an activity report (go to page 53 for the Maryland appendix). Readers may also be interested in the Maryland Consumer Rights Coalition's (MCRC) analysis of the report. 11am in room 120, House of Delegates Building, Annapolis.
• Senate Budget and Taxation Committee is briefed by the Department of Public Safety and Correctional Services on the new youth detention center report. The Committee is also briefed on the allocation of mortgage settlement funds and toll collection issues. 1pm in room 3 West, Senate Office Building, Annapolis.  
• Joint Committee on Transparency and Open Government is briefed on the Open Meetings Act. 1pm in room 130, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• House Ways and Means Committee, House Appropriations Committee, Senate Budget and Taxation Committee, and the Spending Affordability Committee are jointly briefed by the Department of Legislative Services. 4pm in rooms East 1 and 2, Senate Office Building, Annapolis.
• General Provisions Article Review Committee meets to review drafts of Title 2 "Official Oaths" and Title 3 "Open Meetings Act." 5pm in room 240, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Maryland Nonprofits offers Internal Controls for Nonprofit Finances. This is a Maryland Nonprofits training. For more information or to register, go to their events page. 

Thursday, October 18th

• Maryland Health Care Commission meets. 1pm in conference room 100, Maryland Health Care Commission, 4160 Patterson Avenue, Baltimore.
• MBTPI and Maryland Nonprofits present Navigating the Maryland Legislative and Budget Process. Learn about the internal workings and relationships within the executive and legislative branches; the formal steps in the legislative and budgeting process; what determines whether bills pass or fail; how the state budget is developed, reviewed, modified, and approved; and how you can build legislative relationships and communicate your message effectively. This session covers the ins and outs of the Maryland state legislative and budgetary process. This is a full-day Maryland Nonprofits training. For more information or to register, go to their events page. 

Friday, October 19th

• Bureau of Labor Statistics releases state-level employment figures for September. Maryland's unemployment rate rose in August to 7.1 percent, despite job growth. 
• Friday is also the deadline to register for the 33rd Annual Welfare Advocates Conference. This year the conference is October 30th at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Timonium. MBTPI will be presenting in the afternoon on How to be a Non-Profit Voice for Change in Annapolis, so make sure to sign up in advance.

Food stamp challenge: Day 7

Last night I was hungry, but I was worried about running out of bread. I found myself eating peanut butter out of the jar with a spoon - something I have not done before as an adult.
 

Nevertheless, I will successfully complete the Maryland Food Stamp Challenge today (with one cheat for a family event Saturday).

For the past seven days, about 100 of us around Maryland have been eating only what we can buy for $30 for the whole week. That's the  typical benefit, for one person for one week, in the food stamp program (now called the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP). The Food Stamp Challenge is sponsored by our good friends at Maryland Hunger Solutions.

Breakfast today: Oatmeal. My last banana for my mid-morning snack.

Lunch - PB&J and a hard-boiled egg.

Dinner: Mac and cheese with tuna and green beans.

Emergency snack: peanut butter and brown rice. My idea is if I get hungry between meals, I'll mash up my leftover rice with my leftover peanut butter. It might be better than I think.

So here is the big difference between me and most real food stamp recipients. I know that after my seven days of challenge, I will go back my normal, (overly) ample, (reasonably) nutritious eating habits.

Most food stamp recipients do not know when or if their economic circumstances will improve to the extent that they can buy food that is enough and that provides reasonable nutrition, variety and convenience.

Today, I'm thinking about all the other issues that many real food stamp recipients face and I do not. (Of course, I'm also thinking about what I'll eat tomorrow when I'm off of food stamps).

The most important and urgent is the availability of jobs that allow a worker to support themselves and their children. With more jobs that pay living wages, not so many Marylanders would depend on food stamps. We should increase the minimum wage to catch up with the cost of living. We should require employers to provide some level of  paid sick leave. We should assure that young people and adults have access to the education and training they will need to qualify for the decent paying jobs of the 21st century.

What I missed most in my food stamp challenge week were salads, fresh vegetables, and fruits. Protein was my first priority, and after that carbs were the cheapest items. Fruit and vegetables are expensive. I could only afford two cans of veggies and six bananas.

But, I had access to a good grocery store, where at least I could buy the canned veggies at a reasonable price. What about food stamp recipients stuck in urban "food desserts" without access to reliable transportation. We should promote access to nutritional food choices in low-income areas, and we should increase the SNAP benefit to allow recipients to buy well-balanced selection of foods. We MUST protect federal funding for existing nutrition programs.

Finally, SNAP is part of a network of programs that help with food needs, also including the WIC program and school breakfast and lunch programs. Even with all this help, one of every six Maryland families has problems affording enough food. Families also need housing, healthcare, and transportation. These strands in the safety net are currently very weak as well. We need to strengthen programs to help low-income renters, expand health coverage, promote primary and preventive care, and make public transportation more convenient and reliable.

Eating peanut butter from a spoon is not really a hardship. People who are stuck with low-incomes and inadequate supports have real problems. But they are capable of becoming independent and productive with a little help. We need to get serious about helping.

Food Stamp Challenge: Day 4

Along with about 100 other participants, I am in the middle of the Maryland Food Stamp Challenge. This week (October 9 - 15) we are eating only what we can buy with $30. That's the average amount recipients of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance program (SNAP, formerly Food Stamps) have per person per week.

I'm healthy, but hungry.

Breakfast today was oatmeal, with a half a banana as a mid-morning snack. Lunch will be mac and cheese with ground turkey - leftovers from last night's dinner. Dinner will be canned pork and beans, with maybe some rice. I'll have to decide whether to break into my last can of vegetables, or to save it for later in the week. (Why not celebrate? It's my birthday after all).


I'm used to bigger meals, more variety, and more opportunities to snack between meals.

Over 700,000 Marylanders depend on SNAP from every jurisdiction in the state. 

Nationally, 80 percent of SNAP participants are children, parents, or senior citizens.  Thirty percent of SNAP households include wage-earners, but do not bring in enough income to afford decent food. Other SNAP recipients are out of work and drawing unemployment, or are retired and getting social security. SNAP provides critical resources to keep the wolf from the door.

Based on data from before the national recession, SNAP is mostly a help to households during a tough spell. Most SNAP recipients in all categories are on the program for less than 12 months at a stretch. Seniors are the most likely to stay on the program longer than that.

In Congress, SNAP funding is on the chopping block. After a desperate fight funding is now in place through March. After that, SNAP is on the bargaining table as Congress negotiates the federal budget and deficit reduction after the November election.

Food for struggling families should not be at risk. Congress must provide adequate funding for SNAP as part of any budget deal. Otherwise, they are playing politics with the health and well being of kids, working parents and seniors.

Food stamp challenge day one

Today is the first day of the Food Stamp Challenge organized by Maryland Hunger Solutions. I and nearly 100 other participants have committed to use only the amount that a typical Food Stamp recipient gets on all of our food for the week October 9 -15.

When I went shopping, I had a list of all the food I thought I would need for the week. In last year's Food Stamp Challenge, I ended up without any green vegetables. This time, I wanted to get some. I went for two cans of vegetables (1 of mixed, 1 of green beans).

However, I could not afford everything on my list. I put back yogurt (I have a quart of milk for my dairy), a $1 bag of “Super Value” cookies (I’ll have toast with brown sugar and cinnamon for my snacks), 1 of my three cans of tuna. I had planned on a banana every day, but at the end of my shopping trip I was 18 cents over. I paid $30.18 and donated one banana to my family when I got home. If I was really depending on food stamps, I would have had to suffer the indignity of removing the extra banana from my groceries at the check-out.

I’ve mapped out all of my meals for the week. Breakfast today: oatmeal and ½ banana. Lunch: PBJ and the other half of the banana. As I write this, I have eaten the sandwich, and I’m saving the banana half for the afternoon munchies. 

I also brought some of my oatmeal to the office. I can make a bowl of oatmeal in the microwave if I get too hungry at some point at work.

Dinner will be a turkey burger and half the can of mixed vegetables. I’ll need to get 5 meals out of the package of ground turkey I bought: 2 turkey burgers, 2 servings of mac and cheese with ground turkey, and 1 serving of rice and beans with ground turkey. If I run out, I’ll need to have my rice and beans next Monday without any meat.

On Saturday, I’m going to cheat because we have tickets to a dinner theater performance at my son’s school. I will eat my dinner the day after the official end of the challenge (next Tuesday October 16) from my remaining food stamp food (so that I go through all 21 meals to equal a full week). I should have an egg or 2, some bread, PBJ and probably some rice.

So, clearly, I can do this for a week, and so could you. It’s kind of fun, like planning food for a backpacking trip. To eat this way for an extended and indefinite person would be grindingly depressing. And unhealthy. My early assessment – the food stamp benefit is much too low. 

I’ll check in again later in the week.

The Week Ahead

Last week Neil Bergsman blogged about this week's Food Stamp Challenge, which he is participating in, while I blogged about the falling national unemployment rate. Neil also broke down Question 7 (the expanded gambling referendum) for Fox 5 DC. And last but not least, Greg Cantori officially joined the team as CEO of our parent organization Maryland Nonprofits last Monday.

Tuesday, October 9th

• Advisory Council for Alternative Response meets. The Council is developing alternatives to traditional responses to cases of suspected child abuse or neglect. 1pm in room 1044, Department of Human Resources, 311 West Saratoga Street, Baltimore.

Wednesday, October 10th

• House Health and Government Operations Committee goes on a site visit to the University of Maryland, College Park's School of Public Health. Members will be briefed on the Center for Healthy Families, minority health disparities, the Center for Health Information, and the Institute for a Healthiest Maryland. 9:30am to 1:30pm at University House, University of Maryland, College Park.  
• Health Services Cost Review Commission (HSCRC) meets. 10am in room 100, 4160 Patterson Ave, Baltimore.
• Maryland Nonprofits offers Now What? Sustaining Your New Nonprofit. This is a Maryland Nonprofits training. For more information or to register, go to their events page.

Thursday, October, 12th

• Maryland Economic Development Commission holds an infrastructure roundtable. 10am to noon at the Verizon office, 13100 Columbia Place, Silver Spring, MD.
• Board of Directors of the Maryland Health Insurance Plan (MHIP) meets. Topics will include findings from an audit of MHIP; the Missing Federal Application Report; updates on procurements, the Senior Prescription Drug Assistance Program, and federal enrollment; and a discussion about MHIP/Exchange messaging. Participants may attend in person or by conference call. Dial in 888-769-8761 Passcode: 7592829. 9am in suite 630, 1 Calvert Plaza, 201 E. Baltimore Street, Baltimore.