The Week Ahead

Last week Neil blogged about the continued moderately good news coming out of the Board of Revenue Estimates, and the recommendation of the Spending Affordability Committee. However, as Neil points out Congressional action or inaction may still have a large effect on Maryland's budget.

The new General Assembly website has gone live. There are still a few glitches, but advocates should familiarize themselves with the new website now before the start of session 2013.
 
Monday, December 17th

• Alcoholic Beverages Article Review Committee meets to complete its review of material dealing with multiple licensing plans (Various Titles, Subtitle 14A of the Alcoholic Beverages Article) and miscellaneous provisions. 5pm in Judicial Training Room 3, 2009F Commerce Park Drive, Annapolis.
• Maryland Health Care Reform Coordinating Council meets. 10am in room 240, House Office Building, Annapolis.

Tuesday, December 18th

• House Health and Government Operations Committee reviews draft palliative care legislation. 10am in room 241, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Joint Committee on Access to Mental Health Services is briefed on the effect of the Affordable Care Act on access to mental health services and the DHMH Behavioral Health Integration Report.

Wednesday, December 19th

• Board of Public Works meets. 10am in the Governor's Reception Room, State House, Annapolis.
• Workgroup on Access to Habilitative Services Benefits meets. 9:30-11:30am in the Maryland Insurance Administration Hearing Room, 22nd Floor of St. Paul Plaza, 200 St. Paul Place, Baltimore.
• General Provisions Article Review Committee reviews drafts of Title 4 "Public Information Act" and Title 5 "Maryland Public Ethics Law" changes. 3pm in room 241, House Office Building, Annapolis. 
• Maryland Nonprofits offers a webinar on Starting a Nonprofit: Planning and Preparation. This is a paid training, for more information or to register go to their events page.

Thursday, December 20th

• Maryland Health Care Commission meets. 1pm in conference room 100, Maryland Health Care Commission, 4160 Patterson Avenue, Baltimore.
• Board of Directors of the Maryland Health Insurance Plan (MHIP) holds a public session. Topics will include prescription drug utilization, MHIP Tier 4 prescription drug cost sharing alternatives; and a procurement update. The Board also holds a closed session about the MHIP Executive Director search. Participants can attend the meeting in person or by conference call Dial in: 888-603-9632 Participant passcode: 2184969. 9am in suite 630, 1 Calvert Plaza, 201 E. Baltimore Street, Baltimore. 

Friday, December 21st

• Bureau of Labor Statistics releases state employment data for November. Maryland's unemployment rate fell in October, to just 6.7 percent. 

More moderately good news

On Thursday, two of the last pieces of the 2014 budget puzzle fell into place.

The state Board of Revenue Estimates published the December revenue estimates. This is the number that the Governor will base his balanced plan on. The estimate adds $161 million to the previous estimates, from September. The bulk of the increase is in the corporation income tax. The full report is here.

Also the legislative spending affordability made its final recommendation to the Governor. The new revenue estimates would fully cover the cost of the state’s “current services” budget through June 2014. However, the budget is not sustainable into the future. It depends on spending down the fund balance accrued through past revenue gains.

The Spending Affordability Committee recommended that the Governor resolve $200 million of the structural imbalance in his proposed budget. The remaining structural deficit of $183 million is judged to be “within normal budget management tolerances.” The full report is here.

Of course the wild card in the state’s budget remains the federal “fiscal cliff.” If Congress does not reach an agreement on the federal budget, then automatic tax increases and program cuts will take effect. If they do (and if they are allowed to remain in effect for more than a few weeks), then Maryland will lose considerable direct federal aid. More seriously, the federal actions would trigger a new economic downturn, which would reduce state revenues and send Maryland back into a new budget crisis.

The Week Ahead (Late Night Edition)

MBTPI staff are in New Orleans for much of this week at the annual Economic Analysis and Research Network (EARN) conference. This week's edition of the Week Ahead is very late because our travel was significantly delayed due to this mornings fog (and because the wifi at the airport didn't work). But we'll be back in Baltimore in time to cohost our conference call on the fiscal cliff (see Thursday, below).

Tuesday, December 11th

• Legislative Policy Committee holds their last meeting of the interim. 4pm in the Appropriations Committee Room (121), House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Capital Budget Subcommittee and the Public Safety and Administration Subcommittee (both of the House Appropriations Committee) go on a site visit to the Maryland State Archives and warehouses. 10am to 1pm, 350 Rowe Boulevard, Annapolis.
• House Ways and Means Committee holds briefings in preparation for the upcoming session. 10am to 5pm in room 130, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Senate Finance Committee discusses energy issues and the Division of Labor and Industry and related laws and functions. 1pm in 3 East, Senate Office Building, Annapolis.
• Advisory Council for Alternative Response meets. 1pm in room 1044, Department of Human Resources, 311 West Saratoga Street, Baltimore.
• State Commission on Criminal Sentencing Policy continues to review and evaluate Maryland's sentencing guidelines and policies. 5-6:15pm in room 100, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Maryland Community Health Resources Commission meets to discuss Health Enterprise Zone applicants. 2pm in room 230, House Office Building, Annapolis.

Wednesday, December 12th

• House Health and Government Operations Committee receives an update on Maryland's Health Benefit Exchange and state benchmark plan; an update by CareFirst; a briefing on Excelsior College's nursing program; and an update from the Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on generic drug reimbursement. 1pm in room 240, House Office Building, Annapolis, MD
• Special Joint Committee on Pensions meets. 2pm in room 120, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Task Force on the Establishment of a Statewide Spay/Neuter Fund  meets. 1pm in room 250, House Office Building, Annapolis.

Thursday, December 13th

• Joint Committee on the Management of Public Funds is briefed on small business financing opportunities in Maryland and state banks. 1pm in the William Amoss Hearing Room, 4th Floor, Senate Office Building, Annapolis.
• Spending Affordability Committee meets. 4pm in room 120, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• House Emergency Medical Services System Work Group receives an update by the Maryland State Police Aviation Command and a Department of Legislative Services presentation on the Maryland Emergency Medical System Operations Fund. 1:30pm in room 318, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Task Force to Study Maryland Insurance of Last-Resort Programs continues discussion comparing the four insurers of last resort programs. 1pm in room 231, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Maryland Advisory Commission on Manufacturing Competitiveness holds a board meeting. 10am to noon at Frito Lay, 800 Hickory Drive, Aberdeen.
• Council for the Procurement of Health, Educational and Social Services meets. 2pm in room 240, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• MBTPI and Maryland Nonprofits host an informational conference call on the federal fiscal cliff at noon. Call 1-866-740-1260 and use passcode 7636737. 

Friday, December 14th

• Board of Social Work Examiners meets. 11am in room 109, Metro Building, 4201 Patterson Avenue, Baltimore.

Immediate budget problem evaporating – serious challenges remain

Maryland’s budget deficit for fiscal 2014 is nearly gone. The legislature’s fiscal staff recently briefed the Spending Affordability Committee and presented new estimates. These incorporated revised estimates of state debt service requirements and casino revenues.

Source: Dep't of Legislative Services

The result is a projected shortfall of only $27 million. In the context of a total budget of $35 billion, that is essentially balanced.

Does that mean the Governor and legislature don’t have any budget work? Hardly. There are three big, big challenges.     

1.  The fiscal cliff. As we have shown, an impasse on the FEDERAL budget would have severe effects on Maryland’s economy and budget. The White House and Congress must achieve a responsible compromise that avoids precipitous cuts and middle-class tax increases, but that significantly reduces the federal deficit over time. Legislative staff recommended that the upcoming Maryland budget should leave a positive fund balance of $200 million as a buffer.
2. The structural deficit. Even though Maryland has virtually balanced its budget for the upcoming year, the state’s finances are not yet sustainable for the long haul. The projected budget for the upcoming year – fiscal 2014 - could be balanced without much effort because there’s a ¾-billion-dollar surplus to start the year. If we finance the budget by spending down that surplus, then revenues will continue to fall short of expenses after the balance is gone, and the state will be looking at budget shortfalls again in a year or two. So the Governor should propose ongoing revenue increases or spending reductions to bring the budget into long-term balance. One idea for raising revenues is an increase in the tax on cigarettes proposed by the Maryland Citizens’ Health Initiative. This would help balance the structural budget and reduce future health expenses by discouraging smoking.
3. The Transportation Trust Fund. Like most states, Maryland has a special, dedicated fund to pay for roads and other transportation projects: the transportation trust Fund. The gas tax, the transportation fund’s major revenue source has not increased since 1992. And the gas tax does not adjust to account for inflation or for fuel process. The fund is now running out, and without new revenues there will not be enough money for any new construction of roads or mass transit. Maybe not enough to cover operation and maintenance of what we have now. The 2013 legislature will need to consider increasing the gas tax for the first time in 20 years.

The Week Ahead

Yesterday was Veterans Day, when we honor those who served in our nation's military. This weekend was also the start of National Hunger and Homelessness Awareness Week. In a country where 67,000 veterans are homeless on any given night, this week serves as a poignant reminder that the best way to honor our veterans is to take better care of them than we currently do. Baltimore City alone has roughly 350 homeless veterans.

MBTPI was in the news several times in the lead-up to last week's election. We also blogged our reflections about the election and its potential effect on Maryland's budget.

Tuesday, November 13th

• Spending Affordability Committee meets for its second briefing from the Department of Legislative Services (DLS). This time DLS will present on transportation, capital, and state debt. 4pm in room 120, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Joint Committee on Workers' Compensation Benefit and Insurance Oversight discusses the annual report by the Worker's Compensation Commission and other worker's compensation issues, including cancer presumption. 11am in room 231, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Joint Subcommittee on Program Open Space and Agricultural Land Preservation receives an update on land conservation policies, funding and programs. 2pm in room 3 East, Senate Office Building, Annapolis.
• Advisory Council for Alternative Response holds its monthly meeting. 1pm in room 1044, Department of Human Resources, 311 West Saratoga Street, Baltimore. 
• U.S. Treasury Department releases federal budget numbers for October, including the national deficit.  
• Center for Community Service and Justice at Loyola University Maryland hosts a screening of The Line, a film about Americans living at or below the poverty line. 7pm in Cohn 133 (room below the chapel), 4501 North Charles Street, Baltimore.
• Maryland Nonprofits offers a Maximize Your Member Benefits webinar. For more information or to register go to their events page.

Wednesday, November 14th

• Special Joint Committee on Pensions meets for an update on the system actuarial valuation report, system funding study, and investment overview. 2pm in room 120, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Task Force on the Establishment of a Statewide Spay/Neuter Fund discusses presentations on the implications of a rabies surcharge and a survey of public attitudes toward establishing a statewide spay/neuter program. 1pm in room 250, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Board of Public Works meets. 10am in the Governor's Reception Room on the second floor of the State House, Annapolis..
• Maryland Campaign for Paid Sick Days kicks off with an event featuring worker's rights activist Ellen Bravo and Delegate John Olszewski, Jr. Everyone gets sick and everyone deserves time to get better without risking their economic stability, yet 800,000 Marylanders are forced to make impossible choices: Go to work sick, send an ill child to school, or stay home and sacrifice much-needed income, possibly risking job loss. Learn how paid sick leave benefits business, improves public health, and protects families. Lunch is provided at this free event, but registration is required. 11:30am to 1pm at Westminster Hall, 519 W. Fayette Street, Baltimore.
• Census Bureau posts data on retail sales in October.
• Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the October Producer Price Index.
• Maryland Nonprofits offers a financial management training on Project-Based Financials. For more information or to register go to their events page.
• Maryland Nonprofits presents the next offering in their ongoing Policy Webinar Series: Developing an Advocacy Policy. For more information or to register go to their events page.

Thursday, November 15th

• Maryland Health Care Commission meets. 1pm in conference room 100, Maryland Health Care Commission, 4160 Patterson Avenue, Baltimore.
• BLS releases the October Consumer Price Index, the primary inflation indicator.
• BLS also releases initial unemployment claims data for the previous week. Analysts expect an uptick due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy. 
• Maryland Nonprofits offers a webinar on Compiling Board Member Bios. For more information or to register go to their events page.

Friday, November 16th

• Maryland Advisory Commission on Manufacturing Competitiveness holds a board meeting. 2pm in the 17th floor conference room at the World Trade Center, 401 East Pratt Street,  Baltimore.

The Week Ahead

Last week we blogged about the spending affordability briefing and Maryland's structural deficit for fiscal year 2014, and about the lower unemployment rate for the state in September. Neil Bergsman was quoted in an op-ed on Maryland's debt by Gazette.net

October 22nd, 2012

• Alcoholic Beverages Article Review Committee meets to continue its review of material dealing with the conditions for issuing licenses. 5pm in the Judiciary Training Room 3, 2009F Commerce Park Drive, Annapolis.

October 23rd, 2012

• Education and Economic Development Subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee is on a site visit. 10am at The Universities at Shady Grove, 9630 Gudelsky Drive, Rockville. 
• Maryland Nonprofits offers Strategic Planning Made Simple. This is a half-day training; for more information or to register see the events page.

October 24th, 2012

• Senate Education, Health, and Environmental Affairs Committee is on site visits to several public schools. 9am to 4:30pm, Baltimore City Public Schools, Professional Development Center, 2500 E. Northern Parkway, Baltimore. 
• Maryland Nonprofits offers Starting a Nonprofit: Planning and Preparation. This is a lunchtime webinar; for more information or to register see the events page. 

October 25th, 2012

• Task Force to Study Court Decision Regarding Pit Bulls holds a work session. 1pm in 2 East, Senate Office Building, Annapolis.
• Maryland Medicaid Advisory Committee meets. 1-3pm in the lobby level conference room L-3, 201 W. Preston Street, Baltimore.

October 26th, 2012

• Joint Committee on the Chesapeake and Atlantic Coastal Bays Critical Area is on a site visit to Annapolis area living shoreline sites. More information about the Critical Area Commission for the Chesapeake and Atlantic Coastal Bays is available here. 9:30am to 1pm.

MD faces $600 million FY 2014 "structural" deficit, more if feds push US off "fiscal cliff"

As the Governor develops the budget for fiscal year 2014, Maryland is closer to a balanced budget picture at this point in the process than in any of in the last five years. Threats to the economy from the federal budget impasse could make things much worse, though.

The Department of Legislative Services (DLS) briefed the Spending Affordability Committee on Wednesday, forecasting Maryland's economy and issues facing the state in fiscal year (FY) 2014 (DLS's briefing handout).

MBTPI graph from Dep't of Legislative Services data

The highlights include:

Maryland's Economic Outlook

• Labor Market - 12 month payroll employment growth accelerated from June 2011 through February or March of this year. Data from the Current Employment Survey suggests employment grew much slower in the months following, but the trend was still positive. Look for our blog later today about the latest employment figures released this morning (hint: they're good news).
• Housing Market - Existing home sales have been up for the last five months, compared to 12 months prior. Prices for existing homes have been rising since February. Part of the explanation for improvement in the housing market may be that the inventory of homes on the market is down 25 percent compared to 2011.
• Consumer Market - So far this year new vehicle sales are up 10.8 percent while used car sales are essentially flat, compared to 2011. Vehicle prices are also up. Personal income growth has flattened over the first two quarters of 2012, to just under 4 percent.
• Economic Forecast - The Board of Revenue Estimates forecasts that from the current FY 2013 to FY 2015 rising employment (between 0.9 and 1.8 percent growth), personal income (between 3.3 and 6.1 percent growth), and wage and salary income (between 3.4 and 4.2 percent) will reflect the improving state economy.

The improving economy means that DLS projects state revenue growth in FY 2014 of 2.7 percent, to $15.3 billion.

DLS also presented a baseline current services budget (in other words, what the budget would look like if current programs were continued, including expected changes in caseloads, etc.).

One important change this year is that DLS has decided to report information about expenditures from the general funds and some of the state's special funds together. This is an important change, because legislators have increasingly relied on the creation of special funds to help meet revenue shortfalls, masking increases in general funds expenditures. As the inset table shows, including special funds increases the FY 2013 budget by $1.7 billion and the baseline FY 2014 budget by $1.3 billion. This also impacts how we interpret the budget's growth rate. General funds are projected to grow 8.2 percent in FY 2014. However, including the special funds with the general funds drops the annual growth rate of expenditures significantly, to just 4.8 percent.

All of this means that Maryland is likely to face a structural deficit in the FY 2014 budget of more than $600 million. While smaller than in previous years, this is still significant and will require careful work by the executive and legislative branches.

Finally, none of these numbers may mean much if the United States Congress fails to solve their own fiscal problems, specifically sequestration (mandatory across-the-board cuts to discretionary federal spending) and the expiration of various tax cuts and other revenue measures. If Congress fails to act, Maryland could lose $117.6 million in direct federal aid during federal fiscal 2013. Furthermore, Maryland stands to lose up to 60,000 jobs in calendar year 2014 and a further $635 million in lost revenue due to smaller state income and sales tax collections.

The Week Ahead

MBTPI's analysis of Question 7 (the gambling referendum) continues to attract attention, mostly recently in the Afro-American last Monday. Later in the week Neil Bergsman blogged about his experiences with the Food Stamp Challenge (you can also read his final thoughts about the challenge from earlier this morning). Feeding yourself for $30 a week isn't easy; yet another reason why protecting and expanding social services is so important.

Neil Bergsman is co-presenting a full-day training program on the Maryland legislative and budget process with Henry Bogdan of Maryland Nonprofits. Please see the entry for Thursday for more information and how to register. 

Tuesday, October 16th

• Joint Audit Committee holds hearings on data security and other audit issues.  1pm in room 120, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Task Force to Study the Laws and Policies Relating to Representation of Indigent Criminal Defendants by the Office of the Public Defender receives presentations on the DeWolfe vs. Richmond decision, the District Court Commissioner System, pretrial release, and the bail review system. 1pm in room 100, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Task Force on the Establishment of a Statewide Spay/Neuter Fund meets to discuss potential funding mechanisms and program structures. 1pm in room 250, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Maryland Food Access and Nutrition Network presents the 2nd Annual Fighting Hunger in Maryland Conference: A Call to Action (registration required). The conference will bring together agency leaders, nonprofits, schools and other entities invested in reducing hunger and poverty in Maryland. Topics include: SNAP, child nutrition and WIC policy; changing paradigms in emergency food distribution; local food, local hunger; food security and nutrition strategies for seniors; and community nutrition outreach strategies. 8am to 4pm, University of Maryland, SMC Campus Center, 621 West Lombard Street, Baltimore.
• Witnesses to Hunger Exhibit opening reception follows the Fighting Hunger in Maryland conference.

Wednesday, October 17th

• Joint Committee on Children, Youth, and Families discusses nutrition issues including childhood obesity, eating disorders, and breast milk banks for premature babies. 10am in room 130, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Joint Committee on Federal Relations meets to discuss federal health care reform and its impact on Maryland. 10am in the William H Amoss Hearing Room (4th Floor), Senate Office Building, Annapolis.
• Joint Committee on Legislative Data Systems meets. 10am in room 218, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Board of Public Works meets. 10am in the Governor's Reception Room (2nd floor), State House, Annapolis. 
• House Appropriations Committee and House Environmental Matters Committee are jointly briefed on the allocation of mortgage settlement funds. The national Office of Mortgage Settlement Oversight recently published an activity report (go to page 53 for the Maryland appendix). Readers may also be interested in the Maryland Consumer Rights Coalition's (MCRC) analysis of the report. 11am in room 120, House of Delegates Building, Annapolis.
• Senate Budget and Taxation Committee is briefed by the Department of Public Safety and Correctional Services on the new youth detention center report. The Committee is also briefed on the allocation of mortgage settlement funds and toll collection issues. 1pm in room 3 West, Senate Office Building, Annapolis.  
• Joint Committee on Transparency and Open Government is briefed on the Open Meetings Act. 1pm in room 130, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• House Ways and Means Committee, House Appropriations Committee, Senate Budget and Taxation Committee, and the Spending Affordability Committee are jointly briefed by the Department of Legislative Services. 4pm in rooms East 1 and 2, Senate Office Building, Annapolis.
• General Provisions Article Review Committee meets to review drafts of Title 2 "Official Oaths" and Title 3 "Open Meetings Act." 5pm in room 240, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Maryland Nonprofits offers Internal Controls for Nonprofit Finances. This is a Maryland Nonprofits training. For more information or to register, go to their events page. 

Thursday, October 18th

• Maryland Health Care Commission meets. 1pm in conference room 100, Maryland Health Care Commission, 4160 Patterson Avenue, Baltimore.
• MBTPI and Maryland Nonprofits present Navigating the Maryland Legislative and Budget Process. Learn about the internal workings and relationships within the executive and legislative branches; the formal steps in the legislative and budgeting process; what determines whether bills pass or fail; how the state budget is developed, reviewed, modified, and approved; and how you can build legislative relationships and communicate your message effectively. This session covers the ins and outs of the Maryland state legislative and budgetary process. This is a full-day Maryland Nonprofits training. For more information or to register, go to their events page. 

Friday, October 19th

• Bureau of Labor Statistics releases state-level employment figures for September. Maryland's unemployment rate rose in August to 7.1 percent, despite job growth. 
• Friday is also the deadline to register for the 33rd Annual Welfare Advocates Conference. This year the conference is October 30th at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Timonium. MBTPI will be presenting in the afternoon on How to be a Non-Profit Voice for Change in Annapolis, so make sure to sign up in advance.