The Week Ahead

Last week, we posted a blog item about the state allocating $9 million from the reserve fund to back-fill federal sequester cuts for head start, senior citizen services, and other programs. We also covered the disappointing national stats on jobs and unemployment.

And we said goodbye to our Director, Neil Bergsman, who has moved over to the Capital Budgeting Office in DBM.



For the week of September 9-15:

Tuesday, September 10th

• In Annapolis, the legislative Joint Audit Committee will hear audit findings on the Baltimore City Liquor Commission.
• Also in Annapolis, the Task Force to Study the Applicabilityof the Prevailing Wage Law holds its organizational meeting and overview.  The Task Force is required to report by December 31.
• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on US consumer expenditures in 2012.

Thursday, September 12th

• In Annapolis, the Senate Budget and Taxation Committee hears about the solicitation for public-private partnerships related to the “Purple Line” transit project in the Washington-metro area.
• The Capital Debt Affordability Committee also meets in Annapolis to review the state’s capital program. The Committee will issue its recommendations on the size of next year's capital budget on September 25.

Bleak national employment picture changed little in August

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics today announced the national employment and unemployment numbers for August.

The economy added 169,000 jobs - better than July, but not nearly the job growth we would expect in even an average economic recovery.

The unemployment rate edged down to 7.3 percent from July's 7.4 percent. At 7.1 percent in July, Maryland's unemployment rate is now approaching the national average. Historically, Maryland unemployment has remained significantly below the US rate.

The number of long-term unemployed (over 27 weeks) was essentially unchanged at 4.3 million. last week, we discussed the unprecedented levels of long-term employment, and how it affects communities, families and children in addition to the workers themselves.

The Week Ahead - Pro Football Kickoff Edition

Pro football fans in Maryland are geared up for the start of the season. The Baltimore Ravens begin their regular season Thursday. Washington's NFL Team plays its first regulation game of 2013 next Monday.  

Last week we blogged on Maryland’s close-out report for fiscal year 2013. Even though revenues fell $62 million short of estimates, the state ended its year on June 30 with $1.2 billion in the bank. We also blogged on the unprecedented levels of long-term unemployment – with 89,000 Marylanders unable to find work for 27 weeks or more last year.

Coming Up September 3-6

September 4: At 10 am in Annapolis, the Board of Public Works meets.

At 1 pm in Annapolis Maryland's judicial partners will brief the Special Commission of Security in State and Local Corrections Facilities on local court and detention center interaction; the impact of case docketing on detention centers; and security at bail and pretrial hearings

September 5: At 1 pm in Annapolis, the Maryland Health Care Reform Coordinating Council will recap the 2013 Legislative Session, and get an update on Maryland health benefit exchange activities, and the state innovations model planning grant. 

September 6: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases national employment and unemployment data for August. 

 

More people are unemployed for more than 27 weeks, and the effects are long lasting

Urban Institute

The terrible rate of long-term unemployment is what makes the aftermath of the Great Recession crueler that past economic downturns. Long-term unemployment is defined as more than 27 weeks. As of 2012, 89,000 Marylanders were unemployed for at least 27 weeks. Prior to the Great Recession, in 2007, only 19,000 Marylanders had been looking for work that long.

Nationally, nearly 35 percent of unemployed persons have been out of work over 27 weeks (41 percent in Maryland). This compares to just 25 percent at the depth of the 1980 recession – the next worse instance since World War II.

The Urban Institute has published "27 Weeks and Counting,” an interactive feature about people facing long-term unemployment. It effectively combines data analysis with the stories of real people who have been unemployed for over six months. The report shows that loss of income isn't the only consequence of unemployment. Being out of work for a long time can lead to permanently lower wages and career setbacks, worse mental and physical health, and higher mortality rates. Workers' skills may erode while they're out of a job, and they may begin to lose touch with the business contacts that could help them find work.

The consequences of long-term unemployment spill over into families and harm whole communities. Kids whose parents are unemployed for a long time tend to perform worse in school than their peers with employed parents. High rates of long-term unemployment in communities can strain public services. Communities with a high concentration of long-term unemployed workers tend to have higher rates of crime and violence.

One way to fight long-term unemployment is with well-targeted training programs. This year, Governor O’Malley proposed and the legislature adopted an initiative called “EARN Maryland.” EARN Maryland is a new state-funded, competitive workforce development grant program that is industry-led with the goal of helping businesses cultivate the skilled workforce they need to compete.

MBTPI has long called for increased investment in employer-driven training programs, like EARN, to provide real opportunities to Maryland workers.

Employers Add 165k Jobs in April: Previous Estimates Also Increased

According to today's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employers added 165,000 more jobs last month. Industries that added jobs included professional and business services, food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care. The unemployment rate fell slightly, to 7.5 percent, a four year low.

Job creation estimates for February and March were increased by a total of 114,000, a reassuring development as job growth had been seen as particularly weak in March.


Some interesting points about today's jobs report from around the web:

• Dean Baker at the Center for Economic and Policy Research: "One issue worth emphasizing from this and past reports is that there is zero evidence that the prolonged period of high unemployment is due to a lack of skills of the workforce."
• Chad Stone at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities: "The Fed has recognized that unemployment is too high and there is no immediate threat of inflation.  It’s time for lawmakers to recognize that unemployment is too high and there is no looming debt crisis...Despite 38 months of private-sector job growth there were still 2.6 million fewer jobs on nonfarm payrolls and 2.0 million fewer jobs on private payrolls in April than when the recession began in December 2007."
• Michael Greenstone and Adam Looney of The Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution: "As of April, our nation faces a jobs gap of 10 million jobs." They also have a neat calculator where you can input your own job creation rate and see how long it will take the United States to close the jobs gap at that rate.
• By definition, the official unemployment rate does not count those workers who have given up and stopped looking for work, nor does it take into account those who are underemployed. For those figures, you have to look at the alternative measures of unemployment. By the most inclusive measure, unemployment stands at 13.9 percent (that's still significantly below the 17.1 percent it was in late 2009).
• The big problem is still long-term unemployment, according to the New York Times, among many others.