MD unemployment rate drops

Maryland's unemployment rate fell to 6.4 percent (PDF) in November, according to data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, after stalling at 6.7 percent for the previous two months. This is the lowest unemployment rate Maryland has seen in almost five years.

The state unemployment rate fell in November because the number of employed Marylanders rose by just over 8,800 workers. The number of jobs in Maryland (these are two different measures-some jobs may be held by nonresidents, while some Marylanders may work outside the state) also went up, by roughly the same amount.

While this is welcome news, Maryland's economy still has a long way to go as it slowly recovers from the Great Recession. And the slow recovery is likely to continue: the Board of Revenue Estimates projected recently that job growth will continue to be sluggish in 2014 (PDF), at just 1.5 percent.

Maryland lawmakers will have the opportunity to take action in 2014 on a number of issues that could help working families, whether it's promoting job creation directly, providing supports to help while workers are between jobs, or investing in the things that make our state great (like our natural environment, our schools and hospitals, or the infrastructure that connects us. We'll be watching to see what they do. 

MD unemployment rate 6.7% in Sept/Oct

Maryland's unemployment rate was 6.7 percent for the past two months, according to data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  This is down from 7 percent unemployment in August.

In part this decrease is due to about 9,500 fewer unemployed Marylanders, and about 8,400 more who are now employed. Both these numbers are headed in the right direction, which is heartening.

However, there are also still 29,300 fewer Marylanders in the labor force compared to the peak last January. A smaller labor force helps the unemployment rate go down, but it hurts our economy. Some may leave the labor force due to retirement, to return to school, or through migration. However, BLS only counts those who have been working or actively looking for work recently as members of the labor force.  Many folks who would like to work fall off the count because they have been unemployed for so long that they are too discouraged to look for work.

BLS provides us with state employment figures every month. They are an important metric of how our economy is doing, but they don't tell the whole story. The next time these figures are released, go to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics page on BLS's website, click on the Maryland link on the right-hand sidebar, and look at the graphs they provide (pay attention to the scale of the y-axis, and make sure you're looking at seasonally adjusted data). You'll be able to see how the latest data corresponds to peaks and troughs, and trends over time. But remember that the graphs only tell part of the story, so keep reading this blog for more insightful analysis of Maryland's economic policy landscape.

The Week Ahead

Last week, we posted a blog item about the state allocating $9 million from the reserve fund to back-fill federal sequester cuts for head start, senior citizen services, and other programs. We also covered the disappointing national stats on jobs and unemployment.

And we said goodbye to our Director, Neil Bergsman, who has moved over to the Capital Budgeting Office in DBM.



For the week of September 9-15:

Tuesday, September 10th

• In Annapolis, the legislative Joint Audit Committee will hear audit findings on the Baltimore City Liquor Commission.
• Also in Annapolis, the Task Force to Study the Applicabilityof the Prevailing Wage Law holds its organizational meeting and overview.  The Task Force is required to report by December 31.
• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on US consumer expenditures in 2012.

Thursday, September 12th

• In Annapolis, the Senate Budget and Taxation Committee hears about the solicitation for public-private partnerships related to the “Purple Line” transit project in the Washington-metro area.
• The Capital Debt Affordability Committee also meets in Annapolis to review the state’s capital program. The Committee will issue its recommendations on the size of next year's capital budget on September 25.

Bleak national employment picture changed little in August

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics today announced the national employment and unemployment numbers for August.

The economy added 169,000 jobs - better than July, but not nearly the job growth we would expect in even an average economic recovery.

The unemployment rate edged down to 7.3 percent from July's 7.4 percent. At 7.1 percent in July, Maryland's unemployment rate is now approaching the national average. Historically, Maryland unemployment has remained significantly below the US rate.

The number of long-term unemployed (over 27 weeks) was essentially unchanged at 4.3 million. last week, we discussed the unprecedented levels of long-term employment, and how it affects communities, families and children in addition to the workers themselves.

Maryland Employment Numbers for July were Disappointing

The state employment statistics for July were all disappointing. Employment of Maryland residents (seasonally adjusted) was down 15,000 from June – the third consecutive decline. (That's the number of employed Maryland residents. The number of jobs located in Maryland also went down: by 9,200).

The number of unemployed Marylanders went up by 3000, reaching its highest level since October of 2011.

Maryland’s unemployment rate went up to 7.1 percent from 7.0 in June. It has been edging up since reaching  6.5 percent back in April of this year. Prior to the Great Recession, Maryland’s unemployment rate was below 3.5 percent. Maryland's unemployment rate is now approaching the national rate of 7.4 percent.

Economists are attributing the bad news to the automatic federal budget cuts known as “the sequester,” at least in part.

The state Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation's analysis finds the glass half full, by pointing out the gains in private sector jobs since the start of the year, and by noting that the unemployment rate for June was not revised downwards.

The Week Ahead

Last week on the blog, we celebrated the start of the new state fiscal year by featuring the highlights of this year's budget. We also marked Independence Day with Stateline's infographic, "Fourth of July, By The Numbers."

On Tuesday of last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Metropolitan Area Employment report for May. Maryland's overall civilian unemployment rate was 6.9 percent, up from 6.4 percent in April and 6.7 percent the same time last year. The metropolitan areas of Baltimore-Towson, Cumberland, and Salisbury all saw small increases in their unemployment rates, while Hagerstown-Martinsburg's employment figures remained constant since April. 

Last week BLS also published its Employment Situation figures for June, which reported that the total nonfarm employment increased by 195,000 last month, keeping the unemployment rate at 7.6 percent. According to BLS, the overall employment situation has changed very little since February.

For the week of July 8th through 14th:

• On Tuesday, July 9th, the Maryland Pesticide Reporting and Information Work Group meets from 9am to noon in room 250 of the House Office Building at 6 Bladen Street in Annapolis. They will overview the current state pesticide laws and regulations.
• Also on Tuesday, BLS will publish its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May at 10am.
• Later on Tuesday, the Community Services Reimbursement Rate Commission has their regular bi-monthly meeting from 6pm to 8pm in the basement conference room of the Mental Hygiene Administration Building at 55 Wade Avene in Catonsville.
• On Wednesday, July 10, the Maryland Underground Facilities Damage Prevention Authority meets at 9am in the lower level conference room at One Call Center, 7223 Parkway Drive in Hanover.
• On Friday, July 12, BLS will issue its Producer Price Index numbers for June at 8:30am.

MD unemployment falls to 6.5 percent

Maryland's unemployment rate fell again, to 6.5 percent in April, according to figures released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The March unemployment rate had previously been estimated at 6.6 percent. April's figures were better than the national rate of 7.5 percent, but still roughly double Maryland's unemployment rate at the start of the Great Recession.

According to the BLS, Maryland's labor force grew while the ranks of the unemployed shrank. Almost 3,700 more Marylanders were employed in April than in March. Compared to April 2012, more than 31,000 more Marylanders were employed last month.

Interestingly, the data from employers showed an opposite trend. Overall, employers reported 6,200 fewer positions in April. Losses were spread broadly across the private sector--the only industries to show job growth were manufacturing; trade, transportation and utilities; and government. The most likely reason for these conflicting trends is that Maryland workers are either crossing state lines to find work, or they are starting their own businesses and thus do not appear in the second data set.

Employers Add 165k Jobs in April: Previous Estimates Also Increased

According to today's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employers added 165,000 more jobs last month. Industries that added jobs included professional and business services, food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care. The unemployment rate fell slightly, to 7.5 percent, a four year low.

Job creation estimates for February and March were increased by a total of 114,000, a reassuring development as job growth had been seen as particularly weak in March.


Some interesting points about today's jobs report from around the web:

• Dean Baker at the Center for Economic and Policy Research: "One issue worth emphasizing from this and past reports is that there is zero evidence that the prolonged period of high unemployment is due to a lack of skills of the workforce."
• Chad Stone at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities: "The Fed has recognized that unemployment is too high and there is no immediate threat of inflation.  It’s time for lawmakers to recognize that unemployment is too high and there is no looming debt crisis...Despite 38 months of private-sector job growth there were still 2.6 million fewer jobs on nonfarm payrolls and 2.0 million fewer jobs on private payrolls in April than when the recession began in December 2007."
• Michael Greenstone and Adam Looney of The Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution: "As of April, our nation faces a jobs gap of 10 million jobs." They also have a neat calculator where you can input your own job creation rate and see how long it will take the United States to close the jobs gap at that rate.
• By definition, the official unemployment rate does not count those workers who have given up and stopped looking for work, nor does it take into account those who are underemployed. For those figures, you have to look at the alternative measures of unemployment. By the most inclusive measure, unemployment stands at 13.9 percent (that's still significantly below the 17.1 percent it was in late 2009).
• The big problem is still long-term unemployment, according to the New York Times, among many others.

The Week Ahead

Last week we blogged about new family employment figures. This week keep an eye out for the release of our fourth State of Working Maryland 2012 video, on paid sick leave.

For the week of April 29nd through May 5th:

• On Monday, April 29th, the Durable Medical Equipment Provider Task Force discusses recommendations to the Board of Pharmacy regarding which prescription devices it should regulate, from 1-3pm in the Metro Executive Building rooms 108-109, 4201 Patterson Avenue, Baltimore.
• Also on Monday, the Alcoholic Beverages Article Review Committee meets to discuss per diem licenses at 5pm in the Judicial Training Room, 2009F Commerce Park Drive, Annapolis.
• On Wednesday, May 1st, the Maryland Underground Facilities Damage Prevention Authority meets at 9am in the Lower Level Conference Room at the One Call Center, 7223 Parkway Drive, Hanover.
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases metropolitan level employment figures for March. Preliminary data for February showed declining unemployment rates in all Maryland metros, compared to one year prior (the data is not seasonally adjusted and therefore must be examined by comparing February 2013 with February 2012).
• Also on Wednesday, the Board of Public Works meets at 10am in the State House.
• Wednesday afternoon sees a meeting of the Health Services Cost Review Commission at 1pm in room 100 of 4160 Patterson Avenue, Baltimore.
• On Friday, May 3rd, BLS releases national employment figures for April. Preliminary data for March showed a slight decline in the unemployment rate.

The Week Ahead (Earth Day Edition)

Happy Earth Day!

Last week Neil Bergsman appeared in a Public News Service story on the continuing push for paid sick leave. We also blogged about the new 90 Day Report for the 2013 session, and Maryland's 6.6 percent unemployment rate.

For the week of April 22nd through April 28th:

• On Monday, April 22nd, the Task Force to Study the Laws and Policies relating to Representation of Indigent Criminal Defendants by the Office of the Public Defender meets to discuss subcommittee progress at 1pm in room 100 of the House Office Building, Annapolis.
• On Tuesday, April 23rd, MBTPI will co-host our annual Legislative Wrap-Up. For more information and to register for this free event, click here.
• On Thursday, April 25th, the Maryland Medicaid Advisory Committee meets from 1-3pm in a conference room at the Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DHMH) office at 201 W. Preston Street, Baltimore. 
• The Medicaid Advisory Committee meeting will be immediately followed by a public hearing on the HealthChoice (Medicaid delivery program) waiver renewal for 2013, from 1-3pm in the same room on Preston St.
• On Friday, April 26th, the Maryland Community Health Resources Commission holds a conference call to discuss and approve the Local Health Improvement Coalitions.

MD unemployment 6.6% in March

Maryland's unemployment rate was unchanged last month, holding steady at 6.6 percent, according to just-released Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on state-level employment figures for March.

While more than 206,000 Marylanders were unemployed, this was the fewest since February 2009, the last time before February this year when the unemployment rate was so low. Of course, as I highlighted in my last post about the national figures, unemployment rates are very different across different sub-populations. Unemployment is likely much higher among minority Marylanders, women, veterans, and young people, to name a few. While BLS does not release monthly figures on these groups at the state level, you can see their preliminary figures for 2012 (PDF). Data on previous years is available about halfway down this page.

Employers located in Maryland added 4,700 jobs in March. Gains were diffusely scattered across multiple industries: construction, manufacturing, financial activities, professional and business services, and education and health. The trade, transportation, and utilities sector lost the most jobs--1,600.

US adds 88k jobs, but 500k leave the work force

National employment trends were mixed in March, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today.

The unemployment rate ticked down one tenth of one percentage point over the last month, to 7.6 percent. Compared to a year ago, the unemployment rate has fallen six tenths of a percentage point.

Minority unemployment rates remain high, but are also improving. Black unemployment was 13.3 percent, down half a percentage point. Hispanic unemployment was 9.2 percent after a similar decline. Teens 16-19 years of age continue to have the highest unemployment rate at 24.2 percent; yet even this group saw their rate drop by almost a full percentage point. Veterans of the second Gulf War also experience high unemployment in the civilian world, with a rate of 9.2 percent.

Employers added 88,000 jobs in March, mostly in the construction, business and professional services, and education and health services sectors. Retail trade lost the most jobs during the month.

More troubling, the labor force participation rate fell two tenths of a percentage point to 63.3 percent as 496,000 Americans stopped working or looking for work.

Unemployment falls in MD

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released state level employment figures for February today. Marylanders unemployment rate fell to 6.6 percent, down from the 6.7 percent it had hovered at for three months.

Maryland employers added 10,500 positions in February. They have added 38,200 positions since February 2012.

The job market is slowly improving, but it's important to remember that the number of employed Marylanders only exceeded the number employed before the 2008 recession as of six months ago. Collectively, Maryland has a long way to go before every working family is able to succeed.

More MDers employed than before Great Recession

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released state annual average employment figures for 2012 today. Maryland's annual average unemployment rate was 6.8 percent, half a percentage point lower than the previous year. This was significantly lower than the US unemployment rate of 8.1 percent.

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There were also more employed persons in Maryland in 2012 than there were prior to the recession. In 2008 employed Marylanders peaked at 2.89 million. Last year BLS found that there were 2.91 million employed Marylanders.

However, the state's employment to population ratio for those over 16 was still lower than it was in 2007. That year, the employment ratio was 65.2 percent. By 2010 the ratio had fallen to just 61.6 percent. In the past two years it has risen to 63.2 percent, but there is still ground to be made up.

Metro unemployment rates down since peak

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released metro-level unemployment figures for November 2012 today. The unemployment rates in Maryland's metropolitan areas ranged from 6.8 to 8.6 percent. The two largest nearby metro areas-Washington D.C. and Philadelphia-had unemployment rates of 5 and 8 percent, respectively.

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Every metropolitan area has seen declines in the unemployment rate since the end of the recession.

21,000 more Marylanders employed

Yesterday Maryland received some good news from the Bureau of Labor Statistics when the latest jobs report showed that 20,977 more residents were employed in October than September. 5,104 fewer Marylanders were unemployed, and the unemployment rate dropped two tenths of a percentage point to 6.7 percent.

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The state added a total of 14,000 new jobs during the month. The largest increases were in the professional and business services industry (+3,900); trade, transportation, and utilities (+3,700); leisure and hospitality (+3,700). The construction (+2,300), financial activities (+1,700), and education and health services (+2,700) industries also added jobs. Manufacturing (-2,300) and government (-2,700) lost jobs.

This is the lowest Maryland's unemployment rate has been since May, and the most private sector jobs created in one month since 1996.

While this is great news, there are still more than twice as many unemployed Marylanders as there were before the Great Recession. As Governor O'Malley develops the budget he will submit to the legislature in January, we urge him to continue to support and expand programs for struggling families all across Maryland.

US employers added 171,000 new jobs in October

October saw employers add 171,000 new jobs, the 32nd straight month of growth, according to this morning's report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job seekers were more optimistic, as 578,000 of them joined (or rejoined) the labor force. Because of the growth in labor force participation, the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged, rising just one tenth of one percentage point to 7.9 percent.

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The employment story among subgroups remains essentially the same. Unsurprisingly, whites, Asians, and the more highly educated continue to have lower unemployment rates than African Americans or Hispanics, teenagers, or those without high school diplomas. The unemployment rates for blacks and those without high school diplomas actually rose .9 percentage points, while the rates for most other groups were relatively stable.

The greatest numbers of new jobs in October were in retail, education and health services, and leisure and hospitality. Industries that lost jobs included mining and logging, the auto industry, and government.

The national economy is limping forward as Maryland's economy continues to deliver moderately good news. However, the future of this recovery depends in large part on what Congress does or does not get done in the next six months. The threat of sequestration, combined with expiring tax cuts and other measures, looms over every economic model and state budget. Last months' Spending Affordability briefing highlighted the potential negative effects of Congressional inaction: $117.6 million in lost direct federal aid, up to 60,000 lost jobs, and a further $635 million in lost state revenue due to smaller state income and sales tax collections.

MD unemployment down to 6.9 percent

BLS released state-level employment figures for September this morning. Maryland's unemployment rate fell for the first time in six months, to 6.9 percent.

More than 11,000 Marylanders joined the ranks of the employed, as state employers added 9,800 jobs. Every industry sector added jobs or was flat, except for financial services which lost 300. The largest gains were in professional and business services (4,100 new jobs) and trade, transportation, and utilities (2,000 new jobs).

Positive employment trends such as those shown here are good news for Marylanders and the state's budget. Increased employment means more income tax and more purchases resulting in sales tax, the two main components of state revenue. It also suggests that demand for social services may decline in the future, if the jobs added pay a living wage. If this trend continues, Maryland will be better positioned to pay for the investments in schools, roads, public safety, parks, and healthcare that make this state great.

Of course, as we highlighted earlier today, if Congress fails to act to avert sequestration or the fiscal cliff Maryland could be back at square one.

MD employers add 1,400 jobs, but unemployment rate rises

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released August 2012 state employment figures today. Maryland's unemployment rate rose slightly, to 7.1 percent.

The state's unemployment rate rose because the labor force (those working or actively looking for work) shrank while the ranks of the unemployed grew. In other words, there were 9,200 fewer employed Marylanders (down to 2,854,100) in August than in July. That was still 4,500 more employed Marylanders than in August 2011.

However, there were 1,400 more jobs located in Maryland last month than the month prior. Down industry sectors included construction (lost 100 jobs); manufacturing (lost 100 jobs); trade, transportation, and utilities (lost 700 jobs); financial activities (lost 1,400 jobs); and education and health services (lost 2,200 jobs). The only sectors with positive growth were professional and business services (added 1,200 jobs); leisure and hospitality (added 1,000 jobs); and government (added 3,900 jobs). The numbers don't quite add up because of rounding.

The continued weak labor market continue to make the case for a bold economic agenda for all Marylanders.