MD unemployment rate drops

Maryland's unemployment rate fell to 6.4 percent (PDF) in November, according to data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, after stalling at 6.7 percent for the previous two months. This is the lowest unemployment rate Maryland has seen in almost five years.

The state unemployment rate fell in November because the number of employed Marylanders rose by just over 8,800 workers. The number of jobs in Maryland (these are two different measures-some jobs may be held by nonresidents, while some Marylanders may work outside the state) also went up, by roughly the same amount.

While this is welcome news, Maryland's economy still has a long way to go as it slowly recovers from the Great Recession. And the slow recovery is likely to continue: the Board of Revenue Estimates projected recently that job growth will continue to be sluggish in 2014 (PDF), at just 1.5 percent.

Maryland lawmakers will have the opportunity to take action in 2014 on a number of issues that could help working families, whether it's promoting job creation directly, providing supports to help while workers are between jobs, or investing in the things that make our state great (like our natural environment, our schools and hospitals, or the infrastructure that connects us. We'll be watching to see what they do. 

Federal Budget Deal Fails to Extend Unemployment Benefits for Over 82,000 Marylanders

Over 82,000 Maryland residents will lose their unemployment benefits in 2014 if federal lawmakers do not act to extend them. Last week, federal lawmakers agreed to a two-year budget agreement prior to adjourning for the holiday break, but failed to reach agreement on extending unemployment benefits for those still looking for work amid a sluggish economic recovery.

Maryland, like most other states, provides 26 weeks of temporary unemployment insurance to those that have lost their jobs. At the beginning  of the Great Recession began in 2008, Congress provided unemployed workers with additional benefits through the federal Emergency Unemployment Compensation program. But absent reauthorization, this program will expire at the end of the year. If Congress fails to act, almost 23,000 Maryland residents will lose benefits just after Christmas and another 28,500 will be cut off in the first six months of 2014. Further, absent reauthorization, those that lose their job in the first half of 2014 will see their unemployment benefits expire before the end of the year. In total, 82,600 Maryland residents will lose their unemployment benefits.

While emergency unemployment benefits are intended to phase down as the economy recovers, many are still having trouble finding jobs in a labor market that has yet to fully recover from the great recession. Indeed, there are still 1.5 million fewer jobs available in the national economy than there were prior to the start of the Great Recession six years ago, and almost 3 unemployed citizens for every job opening.

This is a problem, particularly since over 37 percent of those out of work are part of the ‘long-term unemployed,’ or those who have been out of work for six months or longer. According to the Economic Policy Institute, there are three times more long-term unemployed now than there were before the recession. Those who have been out of work for long stretches of time have a particularly hard time finding work, as studies show that employers are less likely to consider them for jobs.

These factors, combined with the unprecedented nature of the current long-term unemployment problem, should compel Congress to act on their behalf. As the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities points out, the long-term unemployment rate is at least twice as high now as when federal lawmakers have allowed emergency unemployment benefit to expire following previous.

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Besides the toll on the unemployed and their families, the failure to extend unemployment benefits has economic impacts as well. If benefits expire, job-seekers will have considerably less money to spend, which will reduce demand in the economy. The result would be a nationwide loss of 240,000 jobs in 2014, according to the Department of Labor. Further, rather than serving as a disincentive to look for work, the National Employment Law Project shows that unemployment insurance, by helping job seekers and their families pay for basic necessities, enables them to actively engage in the job hunt.

While securing a budget deal is an important step, lawmakers must do more to ensure full economic recovery and support citizens still trying to weather the Great Recession.

Check back for more coverage on the budget and its effect on federal workers in Maryland. 

MD unemployment rate 6.7% in Sept/Oct

Maryland's unemployment rate was 6.7 percent for the past two months, according to data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  This is down from 7 percent unemployment in August.

In part this decrease is due to about 9,500 fewer unemployed Marylanders, and about 8,400 more who are now employed. Both these numbers are headed in the right direction, which is heartening.

However, there are also still 29,300 fewer Marylanders in the labor force compared to the peak last January. A smaller labor force helps the unemployment rate go down, but it hurts our economy. Some may leave the labor force due to retirement, to return to school, or through migration. However, BLS only counts those who have been working or actively looking for work recently as members of the labor force.  Many folks who would like to work fall off the count because they have been unemployed for so long that they are too discouraged to look for work.

BLS provides us with state employment figures every month. They are an important metric of how our economy is doing, but they don't tell the whole story. The next time these figures are released, go to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics page on BLS's website, click on the Maryland link on the right-hand sidebar, and look at the graphs they provide (pay attention to the scale of the y-axis, and make sure you're looking at seasonally adjusted data). You'll be able to see how the latest data corresponds to peaks and troughs, and trends over time. But remember that the graphs only tell part of the story, so keep reading this blog for more insightful analysis of Maryland's economic policy landscape.

The Week Ahead

Last week, we posted a blog item about the state allocating $9 million from the reserve fund to back-fill federal sequester cuts for head start, senior citizen services, and other programs. We also covered the disappointing national stats on jobs and unemployment.

And we said goodbye to our Director, Neil Bergsman, who has moved over to the Capital Budgeting Office in DBM.



For the week of September 9-15:

Tuesday, September 10th

• In Annapolis, the legislative Joint Audit Committee will hear audit findings on the Baltimore City Liquor Commission.
• Also in Annapolis, the Task Force to Study the Applicabilityof the Prevailing Wage Law holds its organizational meeting and overview.  The Task Force is required to report by December 31.
• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on US consumer expenditures in 2012.

Thursday, September 12th

• In Annapolis, the Senate Budget and Taxation Committee hears about the solicitation for public-private partnerships related to the “Purple Line” transit project in the Washington-metro area.
• The Capital Debt Affordability Committee also meets in Annapolis to review the state’s capital program. The Committee will issue its recommendations on the size of next year's capital budget on September 25.

Bleak national employment picture changed little in August

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics today announced the national employment and unemployment numbers for August.

The economy added 169,000 jobs - better than July, but not nearly the job growth we would expect in even an average economic recovery.

The unemployment rate edged down to 7.3 percent from July's 7.4 percent. At 7.1 percent in July, Maryland's unemployment rate is now approaching the national average. Historically, Maryland unemployment has remained significantly below the US rate.

The number of long-term unemployed (over 27 weeks) was essentially unchanged at 4.3 million. last week, we discussed the unprecedented levels of long-term employment, and how it affects communities, families and children in addition to the workers themselves.

More people are unemployed for more than 27 weeks, and the effects are long lasting

Urban Institute

The terrible rate of long-term unemployment is what makes the aftermath of the Great Recession crueler that past economic downturns. Long-term unemployment is defined as more than 27 weeks. As of 2012, 89,000 Marylanders were unemployed for at least 27 weeks. Prior to the Great Recession, in 2007, only 19,000 Marylanders had been looking for work that long.

Nationally, nearly 35 percent of unemployed persons have been out of work over 27 weeks (41 percent in Maryland). This compares to just 25 percent at the depth of the 1980 recession – the next worse instance since World War II.

The Urban Institute has published "27 Weeks and Counting,” an interactive feature about people facing long-term unemployment. It effectively combines data analysis with the stories of real people who have been unemployed for over six months. The report shows that loss of income isn't the only consequence of unemployment. Being out of work for a long time can lead to permanently lower wages and career setbacks, worse mental and physical health, and higher mortality rates. Workers' skills may erode while they're out of a job, and they may begin to lose touch with the business contacts that could help them find work.

The consequences of long-term unemployment spill over into families and harm whole communities. Kids whose parents are unemployed for a long time tend to perform worse in school than their peers with employed parents. High rates of long-term unemployment in communities can strain public services. Communities with a high concentration of long-term unemployed workers tend to have higher rates of crime and violence.

One way to fight long-term unemployment is with well-targeted training programs. This year, Governor O’Malley proposed and the legislature adopted an initiative called “EARN Maryland.” EARN Maryland is a new state-funded, competitive workforce development grant program that is industry-led with the goal of helping businesses cultivate the skilled workforce they need to compete.

MBTPI has long called for increased investment in employer-driven training programs, like EARN, to provide real opportunities to Maryland workers.

The Week Ahead: Back to School Edition.

Today is the first day of school for students in most of Maryland's public schools (17 of the 24 school systems). Prince George's, Frederick, Calvert, St. Mary's, Washington and Cecil counties started last week. Talbot begins Tuesday. (Some individual schools and grades have different start dates. Check with your local school system for more information.)

On the subject of schools, we blogged about the connection between educational attainment and economic growth. If you want a state economy with high-earning jobs, you should invest in good education.

We also blogged about the disappointing employment statistics for July.

Coming up for August 26 - 30:
August 27, 2013 

• The Community Services Reimbursement Rate Commission  meets in Catonsville.

August 28, 2013

• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases employment and unemployment data for metro areas.
• The Administrative, Executive, and Legislative Review (AELR) Committee meets in Annapolis to review nutrient management plan regulations from the Maryland Department of Agriculture.  

 August 29

•  The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases data on GDP and corporate profits for the second quarter of 2013 (April-June)

August 30

• The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases data on July personal income and consumer spending.
  

Maryland Employment Numbers for July were Disappointing

The state employment statistics for July were all disappointing. Employment of Maryland residents (seasonally adjusted) was down 15,000 from June – the third consecutive decline. (That's the number of employed Maryland residents. The number of jobs located in Maryland also went down: by 9,200).

The number of unemployed Marylanders went up by 3000, reaching its highest level since October of 2011.

Maryland’s unemployment rate went up to 7.1 percent from 7.0 in June. It has been edging up since reaching  6.5 percent back in April of this year. Prior to the Great Recession, Maryland’s unemployment rate was below 3.5 percent. Maryland's unemployment rate is now approaching the national rate of 7.4 percent.

Economists are attributing the bad news to the automatic federal budget cuts known as “the sequester,” at least in part.

The state Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation's analysis finds the glass half full, by pointing out the gains in private sector jobs since the start of the year, and by noting that the unemployment rate for June was not revised downwards.

MD unemployment falls to 6.5 percent

Maryland's unemployment rate fell again, to 6.5 percent in April, according to figures released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The March unemployment rate had previously been estimated at 6.6 percent. April's figures were better than the national rate of 7.5 percent, but still roughly double Maryland's unemployment rate at the start of the Great Recession.

According to the BLS, Maryland's labor force grew while the ranks of the unemployed shrank. Almost 3,700 more Marylanders were employed in April than in March. Compared to April 2012, more than 31,000 more Marylanders were employed last month.

Interestingly, the data from employers showed an opposite trend. Overall, employers reported 6,200 fewer positions in April. Losses were spread broadly across the private sector--the only industries to show job growth were manufacturing; trade, transportation and utilities; and government. The most likely reason for these conflicting trends is that Maryland workers are either crossing state lines to find work, or they are starting their own businesses and thus do not appear in the second data set.

Employers Add 165k Jobs in April: Previous Estimates Also Increased

According to today's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employers added 165,000 more jobs last month. Industries that added jobs included professional and business services, food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care. The unemployment rate fell slightly, to 7.5 percent, a four year low.

Job creation estimates for February and March were increased by a total of 114,000, a reassuring development as job growth had been seen as particularly weak in March.


Some interesting points about today's jobs report from around the web:

• Dean Baker at the Center for Economic and Policy Research: "One issue worth emphasizing from this and past reports is that there is zero evidence that the prolonged period of high unemployment is due to a lack of skills of the workforce."
• Chad Stone at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities: "The Fed has recognized that unemployment is too high and there is no immediate threat of inflation.  It’s time for lawmakers to recognize that unemployment is too high and there is no looming debt crisis...Despite 38 months of private-sector job growth there were still 2.6 million fewer jobs on nonfarm payrolls and 2.0 million fewer jobs on private payrolls in April than when the recession began in December 2007."
• Michael Greenstone and Adam Looney of The Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution: "As of April, our nation faces a jobs gap of 10 million jobs." They also have a neat calculator where you can input your own job creation rate and see how long it will take the United States to close the jobs gap at that rate.
• By definition, the official unemployment rate does not count those workers who have given up and stopped looking for work, nor does it take into account those who are underemployed. For those figures, you have to look at the alternative measures of unemployment. By the most inclusive measure, unemployment stands at 13.9 percent (that's still significantly below the 17.1 percent it was in late 2009).
• The big problem is still long-term unemployment, according to the New York Times, among many others.

The Week Ahead

Last week we blogged about new family employment figures. This week keep an eye out for the release of our fourth State of Working Maryland 2012 video, on paid sick leave.

For the week of April 29nd through May 5th:

• On Monday, April 29th, the Durable Medical Equipment Provider Task Force discusses recommendations to the Board of Pharmacy regarding which prescription devices it should regulate, from 1-3pm in the Metro Executive Building rooms 108-109, 4201 Patterson Avenue, Baltimore.
• Also on Monday, the Alcoholic Beverages Article Review Committee meets to discuss per diem licenses at 5pm in the Judicial Training Room, 2009F Commerce Park Drive, Annapolis.
• On Wednesday, May 1st, the Maryland Underground Facilities Damage Prevention Authority meets at 9am in the Lower Level Conference Room at the One Call Center, 7223 Parkway Drive, Hanover.
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases metropolitan level employment figures for March. Preliminary data for February showed declining unemployment rates in all Maryland metros, compared to one year prior (the data is not seasonally adjusted and therefore must be examined by comparing February 2013 with February 2012).
• Also on Wednesday, the Board of Public Works meets at 10am in the State House.
• Wednesday afternoon sees a meeting of the Health Services Cost Review Commission at 1pm in room 100 of 4160 Patterson Avenue, Baltimore.
• On Friday, May 3rd, BLS releases national employment figures for April. Preliminary data for March showed a slight decline in the unemployment rate.

Family unemployment down in 2012

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released national data on unemployment within families today. In 2012, the percentage of families with at least one unemployed member was 10.5 percent, down from 11.5 percent one year prior. 80 percent of families had at least one employed member.

As with other employment statistics, unemployment was higher among Black and Hispanic families, at 16.8 percent and 14.5 percent with at least one unemployed member, respectively.

Female headed households also fared worse, with just 72.4 percent having at least one employed member. Married couples fared better at 81.9 percent; and both the husband and wife were employed in 47.4 percent of married-couple families in 2012. Both parents worked in 59 percent of married-couple families with children, likely reflecting the high cost of child care.

MD unemployment 6.6% in March

Maryland's unemployment rate was unchanged last month, holding steady at 6.6 percent, according to just-released Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on state-level employment figures for March.

While more than 206,000 Marylanders were unemployed, this was the fewest since February 2009, the last time before February this year when the unemployment rate was so low. Of course, as I highlighted in my last post about the national figures, unemployment rates are very different across different sub-populations. Unemployment is likely much higher among minority Marylanders, women, veterans, and young people, to name a few. While BLS does not release monthly figures on these groups at the state level, you can see their preliminary figures for 2012 (PDF). Data on previous years is available about halfway down this page.

Employers located in Maryland added 4,700 jobs in March. Gains were diffusely scattered across multiple industries: construction, manufacturing, financial activities, professional and business services, and education and health. The trade, transportation, and utilities sector lost the most jobs--1,600.

US adds 88k jobs, but 500k leave the work force

National employment trends were mixed in March, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today.

The unemployment rate ticked down one tenth of one percentage point over the last month, to 7.6 percent. Compared to a year ago, the unemployment rate has fallen six tenths of a percentage point.

Minority unemployment rates remain high, but are also improving. Black unemployment was 13.3 percent, down half a percentage point. Hispanic unemployment was 9.2 percent after a similar decline. Teens 16-19 years of age continue to have the highest unemployment rate at 24.2 percent; yet even this group saw their rate drop by almost a full percentage point. Veterans of the second Gulf War also experience high unemployment in the civilian world, with a rate of 9.2 percent.

Employers added 88,000 jobs in March, mostly in the construction, business and professional services, and education and health services sectors. Retail trade lost the most jobs during the month.

More troubling, the labor force participation rate fell two tenths of a percentage point to 63.3 percent as 496,000 Americans stopped working or looking for work.

The Week Ahead

March was the best month on record for MBTPI's blog. Our most read posts included a guest post on unaccompanied homeless youth, a summary of the federal sequester, and a post outlining the case for increasing the cigarette tax. Last week was a bit slower, with one post on Maryland's falling unemployment rate.

For the week of April 1st to April 7th:

• Both houses passed their version of the operating budget and now need to hash out the differences in conference committee. As of this morning, there is no news on when the committee will meet. Today is the 83rd day of the session - the constitutional target date for budget passage, but that now seems unlikely. Look for our blog post tomorrow about the legislature's apparent lack of urgency.  
• MBTPI is also watching closely for action on SB 703/HB 845. This bill would increase the state refundable earned income tax credit, offsetting the negative effects on low-income families of the important transportation funding bill already passed.
• The Board of Public Works meets on Wednesday, April 3rd, at 10am in the State House.

Unemployment falls in MD

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released state level employment figures for February today. Marylanders unemployment rate fell to 6.6 percent, down from the 6.7 percent it had hovered at for three months.

Maryland employers added 10,500 positions in February. They have added 38,200 positions since February 2012.

The job market is slowly improving, but it's important to remember that the number of employed Marylanders only exceeded the number employed before the 2008 recession as of six months ago. Collectively, Maryland has a long way to go before every working family is able to succeed.

More MDers employed than before Great Recession

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released state annual average employment figures for 2012 today. Maryland's annual average unemployment rate was 6.8 percent, half a percentage point lower than the previous year. This was significantly lower than the US unemployment rate of 8.1 percent.

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There were also more employed persons in Maryland in 2012 than there were prior to the recession. In 2008 employed Marylanders peaked at 2.89 million. Last year BLS found that there were 2.91 million employed Marylanders.

However, the state's employment to population ratio for those over 16 was still lower than it was in 2007. That year, the employment ratio was 65.2 percent. By 2010 the ratio had fallen to just 61.6 percent. In the past two years it has risen to 63.2 percent, but there is still ground to be made up.

Metro unemployment rates down since peak

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released metro-level unemployment figures for November 2012 today. The unemployment rates in Maryland's metropolitan areas ranged from 6.8 to 8.6 percent. The two largest nearby metro areas-Washington D.C. and Philadelphia-had unemployment rates of 5 and 8 percent, respectively.

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Every metropolitan area has seen declines in the unemployment rate since the end of the recession.