Though Statewide Ballot Passed, Support Varied by County...

This post originally appeared on the new Maryland Nonprofits blog. Henry Bogdan, Managing Director of Public Policy and Public Affairs for Maryland Nonprofits, is the author.


Everyone has probably heard by now that the three seriously contested statewide ballot questions all passed last Tuesday.

These include:

1. Question 4 - the “Dream Act”
2. Question 6 - the Civil Marriage Protection Act
3. Question 7 - the Constitutional Amendment permitting expanded gaming
   

Although they  passed on a  statewide basis, the support for each of these varied by county.  Nonprofit advocates or others attempting to work with members of the General Assembly should review how those legislators’ constituents (or at least the voters in their counties) dealt with these questions.  Delegates and Senators will certainly be aware of the results  when they are called on to vote for progressive or controversial legislation between now and the 2014 state elections.   The results are summarized below with links to the county-by-county votes reported for each question on the State Board of Elections’ website.

Question 4 – Dream Act
Passed statewide by 58.3 to 41.7% - but had a majority in only eight jurisdictions: Baltimore City and Baltimore, Charles, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George’s, Somerset and Wicomico Counties.
   
Question 6 – Civil Marriage Protection
Passed by a 51.9 to 48.1% margin, with a majority in only six jurisdictions: Baltimore City and Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Frederick, Howard, and Montgomery Counties.

Question 7 – Expanded Gaming Constitutional Amendment
Passed by 52 to 48% statewide, and in 12 of the state’s 24 jurisdictions: Baltimore City and Allegany, Calvert, Charles, Frederick, Montgomery, Prince George’s, St. Mary’s, Somerset, Washington, Wicomico and Worcester Counties.  
The ‘closest’ vote either way in a county was Question 7’s loss in Dorchester county, by 61 votes (6,901 to 6,962)

The entire set of ballot question results is available on the State Board of Elections' website.

Reflections on the election

Now that the glow from all that late night election-return television watching has faded, we thought we'd share some thoughts about the impact of the election on Maryland going forward.

The most important issue facing Maryland in the next three months is the looming fiscal cliff (or slope, as some have called it). Either the lame duck or the newly elected Congress will have to decide what, if anything, to do about expiring federal tax cuts and the mandatory spending cuts (known as sequestration) set for January. While both measures might help reduce the federal deficit in the short-term, the long-term effects would be devastating in human terms, and would likely push the country back into recession. The Washington Post has collected a number of graphics together to help explain the fiscal cliff at the national level.

In Maryland, the effects of falling off the fiscal cliff would be multiple. The state would see an immediate reduction in federal aid of $117.6 million (see pages 22-24) due to sequestration in fiscal year 2013. The state would also lose up to 53,500 jobs and $268 million in personal income and sales taxes, the largest local revenue sources for the state. This loss of revenue and increased demand for services by the newly unemployed would put significant pressure on the state's budget. The effect in later years would be even more severe.

Not to mention the cuts in federal aid to county and local governments.

Gambling expansion passed, and would raise some additional funds for the state. However, the increase in revenue for FY 2013 would be a bare $58 million, with not more than $200 million per year by 2017.Plus - the Department of Legislative Services' budget projections assumed that the referendum would pass. So the money is not "extra." it's already accounted for in the projections.


It seems unlikely that Congress will address the fiscal cliff before America falls off it. More likely is that the newly elected Congress takes up the issue after the fact early next year. It's unclear what the solution to the current gridlock might be, however. Voters mostly maintained the status quo last night. Democrats still control the White House and the Senate, while Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives. The hyper-partisan polarization that created the fiscal cliff will probably not abate.

Complicating matters for Maryland, the governor will likely have to present his budget to the General Assembly before the matter is resolved. The governor may reserve some amount in the budget to serve as a contingency for the fiscal cliff or it's resolution. or he may submit a budget in January based on the most reasonable assumptions, and leave it to the legislature to make adjustments as the budget bill works through the legislative process. If there is no answer when the legislature take final action on the budget in late march or early April (and that would be bad), then the Governor may propose adjustments to the budget for approval by the Board of Public Work after the budget is enacted.

In short, the national election - whatever else it accomplished - has done little to reduce Maryland's level of budget uncertainty.

The Week Ahead (Election Edition)

Tomorrow is election day, and MBTPI encourages everyone to vote. This is an important election year for Maryland, with a number of ballot issues affecting the state's budget and vulnerable populations. We have not taken a position on any particular ballot issue; however, readers may be interested in our analysis of Question 7, the gambling expansion referendum. You can find out where your polling location is and look at a sample ballot ahead of time on the Board of Elections website.

Last week Gazette.net quoted Neil Bergsman about the effect sequestration would have on Maryland, and Reuters highlighted our brief on expanded gambling. I also blogged about the national employment figures for October.

Tuesday, November 6th

• House Health And Government Operation Committee meets for a briefing on naturopathic medicine. 2pm at the John Hopkins Hospital Sheikh Zayed Tower, room 2069B, 1800 Orleans Street, Baltimore.
• Election Day 2012. Maryland voters decide several issues with budget and policy implications, including whether to expand gambling, the DREAM Act, redistricting, and same sex marriage.

Wednesday, November 7th,

• House Health And Government Operation Committee holds briefings on access to habilitative services (HB 1055); proposed clinical laboratory regulations (Relates to HB 66); the Prince George's County Health System; and the recent meningitis outbreak and regulation of facilities that compound drugs. 1pm in room 240, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Joint Committee on Children, Youth, and Families meets to discuss local management board budget considerations. 10am in room 130, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Task Force to Study Maryland Insurance of Last-Resort Programs meets for a discussion comparing the four insurer of last resort programs. 2pm in room 231, House Office Building, Annapolis.
• Health Services Cost Review Commission meets. 10am in room 100, 4160 Patterson Avenue, Baltimore.
• Maryland Nonprofits offers Major Gifts: Not the Impossible Dream. This is a Maryland Nonprofits training; for more information or to register go to their events page.

Thursday, November 8th

• Joint Committee on the Management of Public Funds receives an update from the Comptroller and Treasurer, and a review of local government audits by the Office of Legislative Audits. 1pm in the William Amoss Hearing Room, 4th Floor, Senate Office Building, Annapolis.
• Maryland Health Insurance Plan Board of Directors meets. Topics include medical claims review, the quarterly financial review, a federal update, application and enrollment Reports, a procurement update, COMAR update, and Executive Director search update. 9am in Suite 630, 1 Calvert Plaza, 201 E. Baltimore Street, Baltimore.
• Maryland Advisory Council for Virtual Learning discusses the history and status of online learning in Maryland. 1-3pm in conference rooms 6 and 7, 200 W. Baltimore Street, Baltimore.

Friday, November 9th

• Board of Social Work Examiners meets. 11am in room 109, Metro Building, 4201 Patterson Avenue, Baltimore.

The Week Ahead

Last week MBTPI released a policy brief about Question 7, the referendum on expanded gambling. We found that the bill passed by the legislature is unlikely to increase funding for education in Maryland.

Tuesday, September 11th

• House Ways and Means Committee is on a day-long site visit to Baltimore City. 
• Advisory Council for Alternative Response meets. 1-3pm in room 1044, Department of Human Resources, 311 West Saratoga Street, Baltimore.

Wednesday, September 12th

• Capital Budget and Public Safety and Administration Subcommittees of the House Appropriations Committee hold a joint site visit to the Maryland State Archives and assorted warehouses. The archives are running out of space. 2-5pm, 350 Rowe Boulevard, Annapolis.
• Senate Finance Committee meets to discuss regulations and procedures for hospices and pulmonary care providers. 1pm, room 3 East, Senate Office Building, Annapolis. 
• Census Bureau releases 2011 poverty and other data from the Current Population Survey. Look for future blog posts highlighting findings of interest.You can also see older poverty data in our annual State of Working Maryland report.

Friday, September 14th

• Board of Social Work Examiners holds a public hearing, and may discuss proposed regulations. A portion of the meeting may be held in closed session. 11am, room 109, Metro Building, 4201 Patterson Avenue, Baltimore.